- EBIT-margin trajectory:
- Historical: 2.3 % → 3.6 % (FY 22/23) , down to – 2 % (FY 23/24) , back to 3 % in Q1 24/25
- Forecast: Gradual recovery to 4–6 % by FY 25/26, reaching 6–8 % by FY 29/30
- Revenue growth:
- Historical: + 70 % (FY 22/23) , + 30 % (FY 23/24) , + 27 % (Q1 24/25)
- Forecast: ~ 15 % CAGR over the next five years (FY 24/25–29/30)
- Five-year share-price goal:
- Current fair value: € 8.5–9.0 per share
- Five-year target: € 14–15 per share (≈ 1.9 bn EUR market cap)
- Enterprise value (EV) outlook (DCF-based):
- Revenues rising to ~ 1.8 bn EUR by FY 29/30
- EBIT of ~ 145 m EUR (8 % margin) → NOPAT ~ 102 m EUR
- FCF margin ~ 5 % → ~ 90 m EUR FCF
- Terminal-value multiple: EV/FCF = 15 → TV ~ 1.35 bn EUR
- Discounted EV: ≈ 1.18 bn EUR + net cash 0.69 bn EUR → ≈ 1.87 bn EUR → ~ 14.8 EUR/share
- Top risks: execution delays, margin pressure from competition, raw-material cost swings, subsidy uncertainty, heavy capex needs
Narrative Outlook
Over the next five years, thyssenkrupp nucera is poised to leverage its unique position at the intersection of mature Chlor-Alkali expertise and rapid Green-Hydrogen adoption. After a transitional phase in FY 23/24 with negative margins driven by upfront investments, the company’s shift toward series-manufactured AWE modules and high-growth project backlog supports a steady margin recovery. By optimizing production processes and scaling up gigawatt-level capacity, management targets a return to double-digit profitability, settling around 6–8 % EBIT margin by FY 29/30.
Revenue is expected to compound at roughly 15 % per annum, reflecting both the execution of > 3 GW of contracted electrolyzer capacity and the continued expansion into new geographies and technologies (SOEC, PEM). This sustained top-line growth underpins robust free cash-flow generation––projected at ~ 5 % of revenues—which, when combined with a conservative EV/FCF multiple of 15, yields an enterprise value of ≈ 1.18 bn EUR today. Adding net liquidity results in a target equity value of ~ 1.9 bn EUR, or € 14–15 per share in five years.
Key uncertainties include large-scale project execution risk, potential price erosion in a competitive equipment market, and fluctuations in critical raw-material costs (e.g., nickel, chromium). Furthermore, evolving subsidy frameworks and high capital requirements may pressure near-term returns. However, thyssenkrupp nucera’s strong balance sheet, diversified customer base (from H2 Green Steel to Shell’s Holland Hydrogen I), and leadership in both AWE and developing SOEC technologies provide a solid foundation for delivering on this mid-term growth and profitability roadmap.
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Disclaimer
The user Chris1 holds no position in XTRA:NCH2. Simply Wall St has no position in any of the companies mentioned. Simply Wall St may provide the securities issuer or related entities with website advertising services for a fee, on an arm's length basis. These relationships have no impact on the way we conduct our business, the content we host, or how our content is served to users. The author of this narrative is not affiliated with, nor authorised by Simply Wall St as a sub-authorised representative. This narrative is general in nature and explores scenarios and estimates created by the author. The narrative does not reflect the opinions of Simply Wall St, and the views expressed are the opinion of the author alone, acting on their own behalf. These scenarios are not indicative of the company's future performance and are exploratory in the ideas they cover. The fair value estimates are estimations only, and does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and they do not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Note that the author's analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.
