thyssenkrupp nucera AG & Co. KGaAXTRA:NCH2 Stock Report

Key Takeaways Positioned to benefit from rising global green hydrogen demand, with policy support and growing engineering contracts pointing to strengthened long-term growth and order visibility. Service expansion, strategic acquisitions, and advanced R&D support higher-margin revenues, improved earnings quality, and greater competitiveness in core and emerging markets.

EBIT-margin trajectory: Historical: 2.3 % → 3.6 % (FY 22/23) ​, down to – 2 % (FY 23/24) ​, back to 3 % in Q1 24/25 ​ Forecast: Gradual recovery to 4–6 % by FY 25/26, reaching 6–8 % by FY 29/30 Revenue growth: Historical: + 70 % (FY 22/23) ​, + 30 % (FY 23/24) ​, + 27 % (Q1 24/25) ​ Forecast: ~ 15 % CAGR over the next five years (FY 24/25–29/30) Five-year share-price goal: Current fair value: € 8.5–9.0 per share Five-year target: € 14–15 per share (≈ 1.9 bn EUR market cap) Enterprise value (EV) outlook (DCF-based): Revenues rising to ~ 1.8 bn EUR by FY 29/30 EBIT of ~ 145 m EUR (8 % margin) → NOPAT ~ 102 m EUR FCF margin ~ 5 % → ~ 90 m EUR FCF Terminal-value multiple: EV/FCF = 15 → TV ~ 1.35 bn EUR Discounted EV: ≈ 1.18 bn EUR + net cash 0.69 bn EUR → ≈ 1.87 bn EUR → ~ 14.8 EUR/share Top risks: execution delays, margin pressure from competition, raw-material cost swings, subsidy uncertainty, heavy capex needs Narrative Outlook Over the next five years, thyssenkrupp nucera is poised to leverage its unique position at the intersection of mature Chlor-Alkali expertise and rapid Green-Hydrogen adoption. After a transitional phase in FY 23/24 with negative margins driven by upfront investments, the company’s shift toward series-manufactured AWE modules and high-growth project backlog supports a steady margin recovery.

Key Takeaways Delays, cancellations, and shifting project scales in green hydrogen are expected to constrain revenue growth and increase volatility in sales performance. Rising protectionism, project concentration, and fierce global competition threaten export growth, margins, and long-term pricing power.

Key Takeaways Rapid conversion of key contracts, robust project execution, and recurring service revenues are set to accelerate high-margin growth and expand segment profitability. Advanced technology acquisitions, strong partnerships, and an asset-light model enable industry leadership in green hydrogen and resilience for long-term market expansion.