Analysts Are Updating Their Money Forward, Inc. (TSE:3994) Estimates After Its First-Quarter Results

Shareholders of Money Forward, Inc. (TSE:3994) will be pleased this week, given that the stock price is up 14% to JP¥3,860 following its latest first-quarter results. Revenues of JP¥12b arrived in line with expectations, although statutory losses per share were JP¥20.44, an impressive 35% smaller than what broker models predicted. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.

Trump has pledged to "unleash" American oil and gas and these 15 US stocks have developments that are poised to benefit.

Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus from Money Forward's eight analysts is for revenues of JP¥51.1b in 2025. This would reflect a substantial 20% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Losses are predicted to fall substantially, shrinking 35% to JP¥71.84. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of JP¥51.5b and losses of JP¥82.63 per share in 2025. Although the revenue estimates have not really changed Money Forward'sfuture looks a little different to the past, with a cut to the loss per share forecasts in particular.

Check out our latest analysis for Money Forward

There's been no major changes to the consensus price target of JP¥5,866, suggesting that reduced loss estimates are not enough to have a long-term positive impact on the stock's valuation. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Money Forward at JP¥6,800 per share, while the most bearish prices it at JP¥4,200. These price targets show that analysts do have some differing views on the business, but the estimates do not vary enough to suggest to us that some are betting on wild success or utter failure.

Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. The period to the end of 2025 brings more of the same, according to the analysts, with revenue forecast to display 28% growth on an annualised basis. That is in line with its 31% annual growth over the past five years. Compare this with the broader industry, which analyst estimates (in aggregate) suggest will see revenues grow 10% annually. So although Money Forward is expected to maintain its revenue growth rate, it's definitely expected to grow faster than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most obvious conclusion is that the analysts made no changes to their forecasts for a loss next year. Happily, there were no major changes to revenue forecasts, with the business still expected to grow faster than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. We have forecasts for Money Forward going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

However, before you get too enthused, we've discovered 1 warning sign for Money Forward that you should be aware of.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.