Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • Apr 22
Investor sentiment improves as stock rises 22% After last week's 22% share price gain to JP¥5,578, the stock trades at a forward P/E ratio of 2333x. Average forward P/E is 16x in the Software industry in Japan. Total returns to shareholders of 2.5% over the past three years. Major Estimate Revision • Apr 21
Consensus estimates of losses per share improve by 25% The consensus outlook for earnings per share (EPS) in fiscal year 2026 has improved. 2026 revenue forecast increased from JP¥55.5b to JP¥57.5b. EPS estimate increased from -JP¥28.21 per share to -JP¥21.05 per share. Software industry in Japan expected to see average net income growth of 22% next year. Consensus price target broadly unchanged at JP¥4,656. Share price rose 49% to JP¥5,762 over the past week. Reported Earnings • Apr 15
First quarter 2026 earnings: EPS and revenues exceed analyst expectations First quarter 2026 results: EPS: JP¥33.05 (up from JP¥20.44 loss in 1Q 2025). Revenue: JP¥14.7b (up 25% from 1Q 2025). Net income: JP¥1.83b (up JP¥2.95b from 1Q 2025). Profit margin: 13% (up from net loss in 1Q 2025). Revenue exceeded analyst estimates by 13%. Earnings per share (EPS) also surpassed analyst estimates by 160%. Revenue is forecast to grow 16% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 10% growth forecast for the Software industry in Japan. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 51% per year but the company’s share price has fallen by 8% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings. Announcement • Apr 07
Money Forward, Inc. to Report Q1, 2026 Results on Apr 14, 2026 Money Forward, Inc. announced that they will report Q1, 2026 results on Apr 14, 2026 Board Change • Mar 13
High number of new directors There are 5 new directors who have joined the board in the last 3 years. Independent External Director Ken Ashida was the last director to join the board, commencing their role in 2026. The company’s lack of board continuity is considered a risk according to the Simply Wall St Risk Model. Announcement • Jan 29
Money Forward, Inc. Revises Full-Year Consolidated Financial Forecasts for the Fiscal Year Ending November 2026 Money Forward, Inc. revised its full-year consolidated financial forecasts for the fiscal year ending November 2026 (December 1, 2025 November 30, 2026), originally announced on January 14, 2026. This revision is due to the recording of extraordinary income in the first quarter of the fiscal year ending November 2026, as described in the "Notice Regarding Expected Recording of Extraordinary Income (Gain on Sale of Investment Securities)" announced on January 27, 2026. Reason for the Revision The Company is revising its full-year financial forecasts because profit attributable to owners of parent is expected to exceed the previous forecast due to the recording of extraordinary income (gain on sale of investment securities). For the year, company expected net sales to be JPY 53,400 million to JPY 57,550 million. Operating profit to be between a loss of JPY 2,500 million to a profit of JPY 500 million. Loss attributable to owners of parent to be between JPY 3,700 million to JPY 700 million. Loss per share to be JPY 66.59 to JPY 12.60 as compared to previous guidance of net sales to be JPY 53,400 million to JPY 57,550 million. Operating profit to be between a loss of JPY 2,500 million to a profit of JPY 500 million. Loss attributable to owners of parent to be between JPY 5,200 million to JPY 2,200 million. Loss per share to be JPY 93.58 to JPY 39.59. Announcement • Jan 27
Money Forward, Inc. Announces Retirement of Directors, Effective in February 2026 Money Forward, Inc. announced that Masaaki Tanaka and Akira Kurabayashi will retire upon the conclusion of the 14th Annual General Meeting of Shareholders to be held in February 2026 due to the expiration of their terms of office. Major Estimate Revision • Jan 23
Consensus EPS estimates fall by 12% The consensus outlook for fiscal year 2026 has been updated. 2026 expected loss increased from -JP¥14.62 to -JP¥16.44 per share. Revenue forecast unchanged at JP¥56.9b. Software industry in Japan expected to see average net income growth of 22% next year. Consensus price target of JP¥5,217 unchanged from last update. Share price fell 13% to JP¥4,141 over the past week. Major Estimate Revision • Jan 21
Consensus estimates of losses per share improve by 13% The consensus outlook for earnings per share (EPS) in fiscal year 2026 has improved. 2026 revenue forecast increased from JP¥56.4b to JP¥57.1b. EPS estimate increased from -JP¥16.12 per share to -JP¥14.00 per share. Software industry in Japan expected to see average net income growth of 22% next year. Consensus price target of JP¥5,217 unchanged from last update. Share price fell 5.5% to JP¥4,322 over the past week. New Risk • Jan 16
New major risk - Earnings quality The company has a high level of non-cash earnings. Accrual ratio: 23% This is considered a major risk. Non-cash earnings can arise from many different things. However, if a company consistently has a high level of non-cash earnings, it may be a sign that they are recognizing revenue from customers before the full value of the sales are received as cash or they are not depreciating the value of their assets appropriately. These are practices that inflate earnings, while not providing a similar increase to cash flows. Companies in some select industries naturally have a high level of non-cash earnings and it is not a major concern. However, in the worst case scenario it can be an early sign of performance manipulation by management. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risk High level of non-cash earnings (23% accrual ratio). Minor Risk Share price has been volatile over the past 3 months (6.7% average weekly change). Reported Earnings • Jan 15
Full year 2025 earnings: EPS and revenues exceed analyst expectations Full year 2025 results: EPS: JP¥28.77 (up from JP¥116 loss in FY 2024). Revenue: JP¥50.3b (up 25% from FY 2024). Net income: JP¥1.59b (up JP¥7.92b from FY 2024). Profit margin: 3.2% (up from net loss in FY 2024). Revenue exceeded analyst estimates by 3.9%. Earnings per share (EPS) also surpassed analyst estimates by 36%. Revenue is forecast to grow 15% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 10% growth forecast for the Software industry in Japan. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 35% per year but the company’s share price has only increased by 4% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings growth. New Risk • Dec 25
New minor risk - Share price stability The company's share price has been volatile over the past 3 months. It is more volatile than 75% of Japanese stocks, typically moving 5.5% a week. This is considered a minor risk. Share price volatility indicates the stock is highly sensitive to market conditions or economic conditions rather than being sensitive to its own business performance, which may also be inconsistent. It also increases the risk of potential losses in the short term as the stock tends to have larger drops in price more frequently than other stocks. This is currently the only risk that has been identified for the company. Price Target Changed • Dec 09
Price target decreased by 7.1% to JP¥5,217 Down from JP¥5,617, the current price target is an average from 9 analysts. New target price is 33% above last closing price of JP¥3,925. Stock is down 22% over the past year. The company is forecast to post earnings per share of JP¥21.09 next year compared to a net loss per share of JP¥116 last year. Breakeven Date Change • Dec 01
Forecast breakeven date pushed back to 2027 The 9 analysts covering Money Forward previously expected the company to break even in 2026. New consensus forecast suggests the company will make a profit of JP¥5.54b in 2027. Average annual earnings growth of 71% is required to achieve expected profit on schedule. Announcement • Nov 28
Money Forward, Inc. Announces Board Retirements Money Forward, Inc. announced that Masaaki Tanaka, Akira Kurabayashi, and Hiroaki Yasutake will retire upon the conclusion of the 14th Annual General Meeting of Shareholders due to the expiration of their terms of office. To ensure the independence of External Directors, the Company has established a guideline limiting the cumulative term of Independent External Directors to 6 terms (6 years) as a general rule, while not precluding re-election for up to a maximum of 8 terms (8 years) (the "Cumulative Term Rule"). Furthermore, if a director is 72 years of age at the conclusion of an Annual General Meeting of Shareholders, they shall retire at the conclusion of said meeting (the "Age Limit Rule"). Masaaki Tanaka exceeds the Cumulative Term Rule and is subject to the Age Limit Rule, and Akira Kurabayashi exceeds the Cumulative Term Rule; therefore, they will retire. Price Target Changed • Nov 10
Price target decreased by 9.1% to JP¥5,617 Down from JP¥6,178, the current price target is an average from 9 analysts. New target price is 30% above last closing price of JP¥4,307. Stock is down 14% over the past year. The company is forecast to post a net loss per share of JP¥68.51 next year compared to a net loss per share of JP¥116 last year. Reported Earnings • Oct 16
Third quarter 2025 earnings: EPS and revenues miss analyst expectations Third quarter 2025 results: JP¥21.46 loss per share (further deteriorated from JP¥20.45 loss in 3Q 2024). Revenue: JP¥12.1b (up 23% from 3Q 2024). Net loss: JP¥1.19b (loss widened 6.5% from 3Q 2024). Revenue missed analyst estimates by 4.6%. Earnings per share (EPS) also missed analyst estimates by 90%. Revenue is forecast to grow 19% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 11% growth forecast for the Software industry in Japan. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 19% per year but the company’s share price has only increased by 11% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings growth. Buy Or Sell Opportunity • Sep 16
Now 20% undervalued Over the last 90 days, the stock has risen 32% to JP¥6,125. The fair value is estimated to be JP¥7,687, however this is not to be taken as a buy recommendation but rather should be used as a guide only. Revenue has grown by 30% over the last 3 years. Earnings per share has grown by 14%. Revenue is forecast to grow by 28% in a year. Earnings are forecast to grow by 81% in the next year. Reported Earnings • Jul 17
Second quarter 2025 earnings released Second quarter 2025 results: Net income: (up JP¥1.28b from 2Q 2024). Breakeven Date Change • Jul 17 The 8 analysts covering Money Forward previously expected the company to break even in 2026. New consensus forecast suggests losses will reduce by 38% to 2025. The company is expected to make a profit of JP¥1.87b in 2026. Average annual earnings growth of 63% is required to achieve expected profit on schedule.
Major Estimate Revision • Apr 21
Consensus EPS estimates upgraded to JP¥71.84 loss The consensus outlook for fiscal year 2025 has been updated. 2025 losses forecast to reduce from -JP¥82.63 to -JP¥71.84 per share. Revenue forecast steady at JP¥51.1b. Software industry in Japan expected to see average net income growth of 23% next year. Consensus price target broadly unchanged at JP¥5,866. Share price rose 6.9% to JP¥4,309 over the past week. Reported Earnings • Apr 15
First quarter 2025 earnings: EPS exceeds analyst expectations First quarter 2025 results: JP¥20.44 loss per share (improved from JP¥24.32 loss in 1Q 2024). Revenue: JP¥11.7b (up 23% from 1Q 2024). Net loss: JP¥1.12b (loss narrowed 15% from 1Q 2024). Revenue was in line with analyst estimates. Earnings per share (EPS) surpassed analyst estimates by 35%. Revenue is forecast to grow 19% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 10% growth forecast for the Software industry in Japan. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 5% per year but the company’s share price has fallen by 9% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings. Announcement • Apr 15
Money Forward, Inc. (TSE:3994) agreed to acquire remaining stake in Biz Forward, Inc. from MUFG Bank, Ltd. and Mitsubishi UFJ Factors Limited. Money Forward, Inc. (TSE:3994) agreed to acquire remaining stake in Biz Forward, Inc. from MUFG Bank, Ltd. and Mitsubishi UFJ Factors Limited on April 14, 2025. Announcement • Apr 03
Money Forward, Inc. to Report Fiscal Year 2025 Results on Jan 14, 2026 Money Forward, Inc. announced that they will report fiscal year 2025 results on Jan 14, 2026 Announcement • Apr 01
Sony Life Insurance Co., Ltd. and Sumitomo Mitsui Card Co., Ltd. completed the acquisition of 90% stake in Nexsol CO., LTD from Money Forward, Inc. (TSE:3994). Sony Life Insurance Co., Ltd. and Sumitomo Mitsui Card Co., Ltd. agreed to acquire 90% stake in Nexsol CO., LTD from Money Forward, Inc. (TSE:3994) on February 27, 2025.
Sony Life Insurance Co., Ltd. and Sumitomo Mitsui Card Co., Ltd. completed the acquisition of 90% stake in Nexsol CO., LTD from Money Forward, Inc. (TSE:3994) on March 31, 2025. Announcement • Mar 31
Money Forward, Inc. Revises Earnings Guidance for the Fiscal Year Ending November 30, 2025 Money Forward, Inc. revised earnings guidance for the fiscal year ending November 30, 2025. For the year, the company expects net sales to be in the range of JPY 49,500 million to JPY 52,100 million against previous guidance range of JPY 50,000 million to JPY 52,600 million. Operating loss to be in the range of JPY 4,700 million to JPY 2,300 million against previous guidance range of JPY 4,700 million to JPY 2,300 million. Loss attributable to owners of parent to be in the range of JPY 6,800 million to JPY 4,400 million against previous guidance range of JPY 6,800 million to JPY 4,400 million. Net loss per share to be in the range of JPY 123.86 to JPY 80.15 against previous guidance range of JPY 123.86 to JPY 80.15. After the Share Transfer, Nexsol Co. Ltd. will be excluded from the Company's scope of consolidation. Accompanying the Share Transfer, a revision will be made to the net sales forecast for the fiscal year 2025 (from December 1, 2024, to November 30, 2025). Major Estimate Revision • Mar 07
Consensus EPS estimates fall by 38% The consensus outlook for fiscal year 2025 has been updated. 2025 expected loss increased from -JP¥34.37 to -JP¥47.58 per share. Revenue forecast unchanged at JP¥51.0b. Software industry in Japan expected to see average net income growth of 16% next year. Consensus price target broadly unchanged at JP¥6,260. Share price rose 4.1% to JP¥4,172 over the past week. Price Target Changed • Mar 06
Price target decreased by 7.2% to JP¥6,260 Down from JP¥6,748, the current price target is an average from 8 analysts. New target price is 47% above last closing price of JP¥4,252. Stock is down 36% over the past year. The company is forecast to post a net loss per share of JP¥47.58 next year compared to a net loss per share of JP¥116 last year. New Risk • Feb 17
New major risk - Share price stability The company's share price has been highly volatile over the past 3 months. It is more volatile than 90% of Japanese stocks, typically moving 7.3% a week. This is considered a major risk. Share price volatility increases the risk of potential losses in the short-term as the stock tends to have larger drops in price more frequently than other stocks. It may also indicate the stock is highly sensitive to market conditions or economic conditions rather than being sensitive to its own business performance, which may also be inconsistent. This is currently the only risk that has been identified for the company. Buy Or Sell Opportunity • Feb 17
Now 23% undervalued after recent price drop Over the last 90 days, the stock has fallen 3.0% to JP¥4,378. The fair value is estimated to be JP¥5,708, however this is not to be taken as a buy recommendation but rather should be used as a guide only. Revenue has grown by 32% over the last 3 years. Earnings per share has declined by 7.0%. Revenue is forecast to grow by 26% in a year. Earnings are forecast to grow by 70% in the next year. Announcement • Feb 16
Money Forward, Inc. to Report Q3, 2025 Results on Oct 15, 2025 Money Forward, Inc. announced that they will report Q3, 2025 results on Oct 15, 2025 Major Estimate Revision • Feb 07
Consensus EPS estimates fall by 14% The consensus outlook for earnings per share (EPS) in fiscal year 2025 has deteriorated. 2025 revenue forecast decreased from JP¥52.1b to JP¥50.8b. Losses expected to increase from JP¥21.19 per share to JP¥24.11. Software industry in Japan expected to see average net income growth of 23% next year. Consensus price target down from JP¥6,748 to JP¥6,310. Share price rose 3.6% to JP¥4,478 over the past week. Reported Earnings • Jan 15
Full year 2024 earnings: EPS and revenues miss analyst expectations Full year 2024 results: JP¥116 loss per share. Revenue: JP¥40.4b (up 33% from FY 2023). Net loss: JP¥6.33b (flat on FY 2023). Revenue missed analyst estimates by 2.0%. Earnings per share (EPS) also missed analyst estimates by 56%. Revenue is forecast to grow 19% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 9.7% growth forecast for the Software industry in Japan. Major Estimate Revision • Jan 15
Consensus EPS estimates fall from profit to JP¥17.09 loss The consensus outlook for fiscal year 2025 has been updated. Expected to report loss instead of -JP¥17.09 instead of JP¥10.62 per share profit previously forecast. Revenue forecast unchanged at JP¥51.9b Software industry in Japan expected to see average net income growth of 23% next year. Consensus price target broadly unchanged at JP¥6,748. Share price fell 18% to JP¥4,036 over the past week. Announcement • Jan 14
Money Forward, Inc., Annual General Meeting, Feb 25, 2025 Money Forward, Inc., Annual General Meeting, Feb 25, 2025. Breakeven Date Change • Jan 14
Forecast breakeven date pushed back to 2026 The 8 analysts covering Money Forward previously expected the company to break even in 2025. New consensus forecast suggests the company will make a profit of JP¥5.50b in 2026. Average annual earnings growth of 58% is required to achieve expected profit on schedule. Announcement • Nov 27
Yozo Ueda to Resign as External Audit & Supervisory Board Member of Money Forward, Inc Money Forward, Inc. announced audit & supervisory board member to resign: Yozo Ueda; Current Position: External Audit & Supervisory Board member. New Risk • Nov 07
New minor risk - Share price stability The company's share price has been volatile over the past 3 months. It is more volatile than 75% of Japanese stocks, typically moving 6.4% a week. This is considered a minor risk. Share price volatility indicates the stock is highly sensitive to market conditions or economic conditions rather than being sensitive to its own business performance, which may also be inconsistent. It also increases the risk of potential losses in the short term as the stock tends to have larger drops in price more frequently than other stocks. This is currently the only risk that has been identified for the company. Announcement • Nov 01
Money Forward, Inc. to Report Fiscal Year 2024 Results on Jan 14, 2025 Money Forward, Inc. announced that they will report fiscal year 2024 results on Jan 14, 2025 Reported Earnings • Oct 17
Third quarter 2024 earnings: EPS and revenues miss analyst expectations Third quarter 2024 results: JP¥20.45 loss per share (improved from JP¥28.73 loss in 3Q 2023). Revenue: JP¥9.81b (up 31% from 3Q 2023). Net loss: JP¥1.11b (loss narrowed 28% from 3Q 2023). Revenue missed analyst estimates by 5.0%. Earnings per share (EPS) also missed analyst estimates by 9.1%. Revenue is forecast to grow 21% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 10% growth forecast for the Software industry in Japan. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 18% per year but the company’s share price has only fallen by 8% per year, which means it has not declined as severely as earnings. Announcement • Oct 15
Money Forward, Inc. Provides Consolidated Earnings Forecast for the Fiscal Year Ending November 30, 2024 Money Forward, Inc. provided consolidated earnings forecast for the Fiscal Year Ending November 30, 2024. For the period, the company expects net sales between JPY 39,500 million to JPY 42,000 million. Operating loss of JPY 3,898 million to JPY 1,898 million. Loss attributable to owners of parent of JPY 4,725 million to JPY 2,725 million. Loss per share of JPY 86.92 to JPY 50.13. Major Estimate Revision • Aug 28
Consensus EPS estimates fall by 12% The consensus outlook for fiscal year 2024 has been updated. 2024 expected loss increased from -JP¥56.31 to -JP¥63.10 per share. Revenue forecast unchanged at JP¥41.4b. Software industry in Japan expected to see average net income growth of 14% next year. Consensus price target broadly unchanged at JP¥7,011. Share price rose 8.6% to JP¥5,590 over the past week. Reported Earnings • Jul 16
Second quarter 2024 earnings: Revenues exceed analysts expectations while EPS lags behind Second quarter 2024 results: JP¥23.51 loss per share (improved from JP¥31.06 loss in 2Q 2023). Revenue: JP¥10.3b (up 41% from 2Q 2023). Net loss: JP¥1.28b (loss narrowed 24% from 2Q 2023). Revenue exceeded analyst estimates by 2.6%. Earnings per share (EPS) missed analyst estimates by 98%. Revenue is forecast to grow 21% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 10% growth forecast for the Software industry in Japan. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 32% per year but the company’s share price has only fallen by 8% per year, which means it has not declined as severely as earnings. New Risk • Jun 12
New major risk - Share price stability The company's share price has been highly volatile over the past 3 months. It is more volatile than 90% of Japanese stocks, typically moving 7.5% a week. This is considered a major risk. Share price volatility increases the risk of potential losses in the short-term as the stock tends to have larger drops in price more frequently than other stocks. It may also indicate the stock is highly sensitive to market conditions or economic conditions rather than being sensitive to its own business performance, which may also be inconsistent. This is currently the only risk that has been identified for the company. Reported Earnings • Apr 14
First quarter 2024 earnings: Revenues exceed analysts expectations while EPS lags behind First quarter 2024 results: JP¥24.32 loss per share (improved from JP¥31.71 loss in 1Q 2023). Revenue: JP¥9.54b (up 41% from 1Q 2023). Net loss: JP¥1.32b (loss narrowed 23% from 1Q 2023). Revenue exceeded analyst estimates by 2.3%. Earnings per share (EPS) missed analyst estimates by 12%. Revenue is forecast to grow 22% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 11% growth forecast for the Software industry in Japan. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 43% per year but the company’s share price has increased by 5% per year, which means it is well ahead of earnings. Announcement • Apr 01
Money Forward, Inc. (TSE:3994) agreed to acquire 20.3% stake in Caster Co.Ltd. (TSE:9331) from various investor for ¥470 million. Money Forward, Inc. (TSE:3994) agreed to acquire 20.3% stake in Caster Co.Ltd. (TSE:9331) from various investor for ¥470 million on April 1, 2024. Board Change • Mar 21
High number of new directors There are 5 new directors who have joined the board in the last 3 years. Independent Outside Director Yukino Kikuma was the last director to join the board, commencing their role in 2024. The company’s lack of board continuity is considered a risk according to the Simply Wall St Risk Model. Major Estimate Revision • Jan 31
Consensus estimates of losses per share improve by 13% The consensus outlook for earnings per share (EPS) in fiscal year 2024 has improved. 2024 revenue forecast increased from JP¥39.9b to JP¥40.8b. EPS estimate increased from -JP¥50.59 per share to -JP¥44.15 per share. Software industry in Japan expected to see average net income growth of 18% next year. Consensus price target up from JP¥6,236 to JP¥6,713. Share price rose 8.4% to JP¥5,847 over the past week. Price Target Changed • Jan 30
Price target increased by 7.4% to JP¥6,700 Up from JP¥6,236, the current price target is an average from 7 analysts. New target price is 18% above last closing price of JP¥5,695. Stock is up 20% over the past year. The company is forecast to post a net loss per share of JP¥45.75 next year compared to a net loss per share of JP¥117 last year. Breakeven Date Change • Jan 24
Forecast to breakeven in 2025 The 9 analysts covering Money Forward expect the company to break even for the first time. New consensus forecast suggests the company will make a profit of JP¥2.30b in 2025. Average annual earnings growth of 58% is required to achieve expected profit on schedule. Reported Earnings • Jan 15
Full year 2023 earnings: EPS and revenues exceed analyst expectations Full year 2023 results: JP¥117 loss per share (improved from JP¥176 loss in FY 2022). Revenue: JP¥30.4b (up 42% from FY 2022). Net loss: JP¥6.32b (loss narrowed 33% from FY 2022). Revenue exceeded analyst estimates by 2.2%. Earnings per share (EPS) also surpassed analyst estimates by 4.0%. Revenue is forecast to grow 22% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 9.6% growth forecast for the Software industry in Japan. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 51% per year but the company’s share price has only fallen by 2% per year, which means it has not declined as severely as earnings. Announcement • Jan 14
Money Forward, Inc., Annual General Meeting, Feb 28, 2024 Money Forward, Inc., Annual General Meeting, Feb 28, 2024. Announcement • Dec 21
Money Forward, Inc. Announces Etsuko Okajima to Resign as External Director Money Forward, Inc. announced resignation of Etsuko Okajima as External Director upon the conclusion of the 12th Annual General Meeting of Shareholders. Announcement • Nov 01
Money Forward, Inc. to Report Fiscal Year 2023 Results on Jan 12, 2024 Money Forward, Inc. announced that they will report fiscal year 2023 results on Jan 12, 2024 New Risk • Oct 18
New major risk - Share price stability The company's share price has been highly volatile over the past 3 months. It is more volatile than 90% of Japanese stocks, typically moving 7.3% a week. This is considered a major risk. Share price volatility increases the risk of potential losses in the short-term as the stock tends to have larger drops in price more frequently than other stocks. It may also indicate the stock is highly sensitive to market conditions or economic conditions rather than being sensitive to its own business performance, which may also be inconsistent. This is currently the only risk that has been identified for the company. Announcement • Oct 17
Money Forward, Inc. Announces Consolidated Earnings Forecast for the Fourth Quarter Ending November 30, 2023 Money Forward, Inc. announced consolidated earnings forecast for the fourth quarter ending November 30, 2023. For the year ending November 30, 2023, the company expects net sales of JPY 8,054 million to JPY 8,699 million. Operating loss of JPY 2,100 million to JPY 1,600 million. Loss attributable to owners of parent of JPY 2,200 million to JPY 1,700 million. Loss per share of JPY 40.65 to JPY 31.41. Reported Earnings • Oct 15
Third quarter 2023 earnings: EPS in line with expectations, revenues disappoint Third quarter 2023 results: JP¥28.73 loss per share (improved from JP¥64.46 loss in 3Q 2022). Revenue: JP¥7.50b (up 37% from 3Q 2022). Net loss: JP¥1.55b (loss narrowed 55% from 3Q 2022). Revenue missed analyst estimates by 1.8%. Earnings per share (EPS) were mostly in line with analyst estimates. Revenue is forecast to grow 24% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 11% growth forecast for the Software industry in Japan. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 58% per year but the company’s share price has increased by 4% per year, which means it is well ahead of earnings. Breakeven Date Change • Oct 13
Forecast to breakeven in 2025 The 10 analysts covering Money Forward expect the company to break even for the first time. New consensus forecast suggests the company will make a profit of JP¥2.71b in 2025. Average annual earnings growth of 92% is required to achieve expected profit on schedule. Announcement • Oct 13
Money Forward, Inc. Revises Consolidated Earnings Guidance for the Year Ending November 30, 2023 Money Forward, Inc. revised consolidated earnings guidance for the year ending November 30, 2023. For the year ending November 30, 2023, the company expects net sales of JPY 29,639 million to JPY 30,283 million compared to previous guidance of JPY 29,209 million to JPY 30,283 million. Operating profit of JPY 6,665 million to JPY 6,165 million. Profit attributable to owners of parent of JPY 7,136 million to JPY 6,636 million. Earnings per share of JPY 132.19 to JPY 122.92. Buying Opportunity • Aug 08
Now 20% undervalued The stock has been flat over the last 90 days. The fair value is estimated to be JP¥6,823, however this is not to be taken as a buy recommendation but rather should be used as a guide only. Revenue has grown by 32% over the last 3 years. Earnings per share has declined by 62%. Revenue is forecast to grow by 75% in 2 years. Earnings is forecast to grow by 99% in the next 2 years. Reported Earnings • Jul 20
Second quarter 2023 earnings released: JP¥31.06 loss per share (vs JP¥41.49 loss in 2Q 2022) Second quarter 2023 results: JP¥31.06 loss per share (improved from JP¥41.49 loss in 2Q 2022). Revenue: JP¥7.30b (up 44% from 2Q 2022). Net loss: JP¥1.68b (loss narrowed 25% from 2Q 2022). Revenue is forecast to grow 23% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 10% growth forecast for the Software industry in Japan. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 62% per year but the company’s share price has increased by 14% per year, which means it is well ahead of earnings. New Risk • Jul 19
New major risk - Revenue and earnings growth Earnings are forecast to decline by an average of 0.3% per year for the foreseeable future. This is considered a major risk. Ultimately, shareholders want to see a good return on their investment and that generally comes from sharing in the company's profits. If profits are expected to decline, then in most cases the share price will decline over time as well. In addition, if the company pays dividends it will also likely need to reduce or cut them, striking a dual blow to total shareholder returns. This is currently the only risk that has been identified for the company. Breakeven Date Change • Jul 19 The 10 analysts covering Money Forward previously expected the company to break even in 2025. New consensus forecast suggests losses will reduce by 47% per year to 2024. The company is expected to make a profit of JP¥2.16b in 2025.
Reported Earnings • Apr 16
First quarter 2023 earnings: EPS and revenues exceed analyst expectations First quarter 2023 results: JP¥31.71 loss per share (further deteriorated from JP¥31.27 loss in 1Q 2022). Revenue: JP¥6.79b (up 43% from 1Q 2022). Net loss: JP¥1.71b (loss widened 2.2% from 1Q 2022). Revenue exceeded analyst estimates by 5.6%. Earnings per share (EPS) also surpassed analyst estimates by 25%. Revenue is forecast to grow 23% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 12% growth forecast for the Software industry in Japan. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 60% per year but the company’s share price has increased by 27% per year, which means it is well ahead of earnings. Breakeven Date Change • Apr 15 The 11 analysts covering Money Forward previously expected the company to break even in 2025. New consensus forecast suggests losses will reduce by 47% per year to 2024. The company is expected to make a profit of JP¥1.65b in 2025. Average annual earnings growth of 0.3% is required to achieve expected profit on schedule.
Buying Opportunity • Apr 06
Now 22% undervalued Over the last 90 days, the stock is up 12%. The fair value is estimated to be JP¥6,020, however this is not to be taken as a buy recommendation but rather should be used as a guide only. Revenue has grown by 34% over the last 3 years. Earnings per share has declined by 48%. Revenue is forecast to grow by 70% in 2 years. Earnings is forecast to grow by 72% in the next 2 years. Buying Opportunity • Mar 20
Now 21% undervalued Over the last 90 days, the stock is up 16%. The fair value is estimated to be JP¥6,016, however this is not to be taken as a buy recommendation but rather should be used as a guide only. Revenue has grown by 34% over the last 3 years. Earnings per share has declined by 48%. Revenue is forecast to grow by 70% in 2 years. Earnings is forecast to grow by 74% in the next 2 years. Major Estimate Revision • Mar 03
Consensus EPS estimates fall by 11% The consensus outlook for fiscal year 2023 has been updated. 2023 expected loss increased from -JP¥115 to -JP¥128 per share. Revenue forecast unchanged at JP¥28.4b. Software industry in Japan expected to see average net income growth of 16% next year. Consensus price target broadly unchanged at JP¥5,150. Share price fell 5.0% to JP¥4,340 over the past week. Breakeven Date Change • Feb 28
Forecast to breakeven in 2025 The 11 analysts covering Money Forward expect the company to break even for the first time. New consensus forecast suggests the company will make a profit of JP¥1.62b in 2025. Average annual earnings growth of 77% is required to achieve expected profit on schedule. Announcement • Jan 21
Money Forward, Inc. Provides Earnings Guidance for the First Quarter Ending February 28, 2023 and Fiscal Year 2023 Money Forward, Inc. provided earnings guidance for the first quarter ending February 28, 2023 and fiscal year 2023. For the quarter, the company expects net sales of ¥6,278 million to ¥6,563 million, operating loss of ¥2,569 million to ¥2,069 million, loss attributable to owners of parent of ¥2,585 million to ¥2,085 million and loss per share of ¥48.07 to ¥38.77.For the year, the company expects net sales of ¥27,491 million to ¥29,639 million. Reported Earnings • Jan 17
Full year 2022 earnings: Revenues exceed analysts expectations while EPS lags behind Full year 2022 results: JP¥176 loss per share (further deteriorated from JP¥29.97 loss in FY 2021). Revenue: JP¥21.5b (up 37% from FY 2021). Net loss: JP¥9.45b (loss widened JP¥7.97b from FY 2021). Revenue exceeded analyst estimates by 1.0%. Earnings per share (EPS) missed analyst estimates by 3.0%. Revenue is forecast to grow 21% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 14% growth forecast for the Software industry in Japan. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 48% per year but the company’s share price has increased by 23% per year, which means it is well ahead of earnings. Announcement • Jan 16
Money Forward, Inc., Annual General Meeting, Feb 22, 2023 Money Forward, Inc., Annual General Meeting, Feb 22, 2023. Agenda: To consider the Reduction of Legal Capital Surplus and Appropriation of Surplus. Breakeven Date Change • Nov 30
Forecast to breakeven in 2025 The 12 analysts covering Money Forward expect the company to break even for the first time. New consensus forecast suggests the company will make a profit of JP¥477.0m in 2025. Average annual earnings growth of 68% is required to achieve expected profit on schedule. Announcement • Nov 10
Money Forward, Inc. to Report Q3, 2023 Results on Oct 13, 2023 Money Forward, Inc. announced that they will report Q3, 2023 results on Oct 13, 2023