Earnings Miss: ULVAC, Inc. Missed EPS By 55% And Analysts Are Revising Their Forecasts

ULVAC, Inc. (TSE:6728) just released its latest third-quarter report and things are not looking great. The analysts look to have been far too optimistic in the lead-up to these results, with revenues of (JP¥53b) coming in 21% below what they had expected. Statutory earnings per share of JP¥54.72 fell 55% short. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. With this in mind, we've gathered the latest statutory forecasts to see what the analysts are expecting for next year.

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After the latest results, the ten analysts covering ULVAC are now predicting revenues of JP¥277.9b in 2026. If met, this would reflect a credible 5.4% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to jump 25% to JP¥510. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of JP¥287.4b and earnings per share (EPS) of JP¥545 in 2026. It's pretty clear that pessimism has reared its head after the latest results, leading to a weaker revenue outlook and a small dip in earnings per share estimates.

View our latest analysis for ULVAC

It'll come as no surprise then, to learn that the analysts have cut their price target 8.7% to JP¥8,438. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. The most optimistic ULVAC analyst has a price target of JP¥11,000 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at JP¥5,600. This is a fairly broad spread of estimates, suggesting that analysts are forecasting a wide range of possible outcomes for the business.

Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that ULVAC's revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2026 expected to display 4.3% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 9.0% over the past five years. By way of comparison, the other companies in this industry with analyst coverage are forecast to grow their revenue at 7.3% per year. Factoring in the forecast slowdown in growth, it seems obvious that ULVAC is also expected to grow slower than other industry participants.

The Bottom Line

The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for ULVAC. Unfortunately, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, and our data indicates underperformance compared to the wider industry. Even so, earnings per share are more important to the intrinsic value of the business. The consensus price target fell measurably, with the analysts seemingly not reassured by the latest results, leading to a lower estimate of ULVAC's future valuation.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. We have estimates - from multiple ULVAC analysts - going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Even so, be aware that ULVAC is showing 1 warning sign in our investment analysis , you should know about...

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.