Risks To Shareholder Returns Are Elevated At These Prices For Central Automotive Products Ltd. (TSE:8117)

There wouldn't be many who think Central Automotive Products Ltd.'s (TSE:8117) price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 12.5x is worth a mention when the median P/E in Japan is similar at about 13x. While this might not raise any eyebrows, if the P/E ratio is not justified investors could be missing out on a potential opportunity or ignoring looming disappointment.

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Central Automotive Products could be doing better as it's been growing earnings less than most other companies lately. It might be that many expect the uninspiring earnings performance to strengthen positively, which has kept the P/E from falling. If not, then existing shareholders may be a little nervous about the viability of the share price.

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What Are Growth Metrics Telling Us About The P/E?

The only time you'd be comfortable seeing a P/E like Central Automotive Products' is when the company's growth is tracking the market closely.

Taking a look back first, we see that the company managed to grow earnings per share by a handy 4.7% last year. Pleasingly, EPS has also lifted 79% in aggregate from three years ago, partly thanks to the last 12 months of growth. Therefore, it's fair to say the earnings growth recently has been superb for the company.

Shifting to the future, estimates from the dual analysts covering the company suggest earnings should grow by 1.0% over the next year. With the market predicted to deliver 9.6% growth , the company is positioned for a weaker earnings result.

In light of this, it's curious that Central Automotive Products' P/E sits in line with the majority of other companies. It seems most investors are ignoring the fairly limited growth expectations and are willing to pay up for exposure to the stock. Maintaining these prices will be difficult to achieve as this level of earnings growth is likely to weigh down the shares eventually.

The Final Word

Typically, we'd caution against reading too much into price-to-earnings ratios when settling on investment decisions, though it can reveal plenty about what other market participants think about the company.

Our examination of Central Automotive Products' analyst forecasts revealed that its inferior earnings outlook isn't impacting its P/E as much as we would have predicted. When we see a weak earnings outlook with slower than market growth, we suspect the share price is at risk of declining, sending the moderate P/E lower. Unless these conditions improve, it's challenging to accept these prices as being reasonable.

A lot of potential risks can sit within a company's balance sheet. Our free balance sheet analysis for Central Automotive Products with six simple checks will allow you to discover any risks that could be an issue.

It's important to make sure you look for a great company, not just the first idea you come across. So take a peek at this free list of interesting companies with strong recent earnings growth (and a low P/E).

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.