GOLDCREST Co.,Ltd. Beat Analyst Estimates: See What The Consensus Is Forecasting For Next Year

A week ago, GOLDCREST Co.,Ltd. (TSE:8871) came out with a strong set of quarterly numbers that could potentially lead to a re-rate of the stock. Statutory earnings performance was extremely strong, with revenue of JP¥11b beating expectations by 41% and earnings per share (EPS) of JP¥66.86, an impressive 116%ahead of expectations. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.

Check out our latest analysis for GOLDCRESTLtd

Taking into account the latest results, the dual analysts covering GOLDCRESTLtd provided consensus estimates of JP¥28.7b revenue in 2026, which would reflect a painful 21% decline over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are forecast to dive 38% to JP¥141 in the same period. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of JP¥28.5b and earnings per share (EPS) of JP¥140 in 2026. So it's pretty clear that, although the analysts have updated their estimates, there's been no major change in expectations for the business following the latest results.

It will come as no surprise then, to learn that the consensus price target is largely unchanged at JP¥2,903.

Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. Over the past five years, revenues have declined around 3.9% annually. Worse, forecasts are essentially predicting the decline to accelerate, with the estimate for an annualised 17% decline in revenue until the end of 2026. Compare this against analyst estimates for companies in the broader industry, which suggest that revenues (in aggregate) are expected to grow 4.0% annually. So it's pretty clear that, while it does have declining revenues, the analysts also expect GOLDCRESTLtd to suffer worse than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most obvious conclusion is that there's been no major change in the business' prospects in recent times, with the analysts holding their earnings forecasts steady, in line with previous estimates. Fortunately, the analysts also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Although our data does suggest that GOLDCRESTLtd's revenue is expected to perform worse than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. At least one analyst has provided forecasts out to 2027, which can be seen for free on our platform here.

Even so, be aware that GOLDCRESTLtd is showing 2 warning signs in our investment analysis , and 1 of those is potentially serious...

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.