Nomura Real Estate Holdings, Inc. Just Recorded A 60% EPS Beat: Here's What Analysts Are Forecasting Next

Nomura Real Estate Holdings, Inc. (TSE:3231) just released its third-quarter report and things are looking bullish. It was overall a positive result, with revenues beating expectations by 2.3% to hit JP¥191b. Nomura Real Estate Holdings also reported a statutory profit of JP¥115, which was an impressive 60% above what the analysts had forecast. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.

See our latest analysis for Nomura Real Estate Holdings

Taking into account the latest results, the most recent consensus for Nomura Real Estate Holdings from ten analysts is for revenues of JP¥832.8b in 2026. If met, it would imply a credible 5.7% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are expected to sink 12% to JP¥448 in the same period. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of JP¥830.3b and earnings per share (EPS) of JP¥442 in 2026. So it's pretty clear that, although the analysts have updated their estimates, there's been no major change in expectations for the business following the latest results.

The analysts reconfirmed their price target of JP¥4,441, showing that the business is executing well and in line with expectations. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. There are some variant perceptions on Nomura Real Estate Holdings, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at JP¥5,200 and the most bearish at JP¥3,950 per share. Even so, with a relatively close grouping of estimates, it looks like the analysts are quite confident in their valuations, suggesting Nomura Real Estate Holdings is an easy business to forecast or the the analysts are all using similar assumptions.

These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the Nomura Real Estate Holdings' past performance and to peers in the same industry. It's clear from the latest estimates that Nomura Real Estate Holdings' rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with the forecast 4.5% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2026 noticeably faster than its historical growth of 3.4% p.a. over the past five years. Compare this with other companies in the same industry, which are forecast to grow their revenue 4.0% annually. Nomura Real Estate Holdings is expected to grow at about the same rate as its industry, so it's not clear that we can draw any conclusions from its growth relative to competitors.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that there's been no major change in sentiment, with the analysts reconfirming that the business is performing in line with their previous earnings per share estimates. They also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, with the company predicted to grow at about the same rate as the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Nomura Real Estate Holdings. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. We have forecasts for Nomura Real Estate Holdings going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Don't forget that there may still be risks. For instance, we've identified 2 warning signs for Nomura Real Estate Holdings (1 can't be ignored) you should be aware of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.