The board of Tsumura & Co. (TSE:4540) has announced that it will pay a dividend of ¥68.00 per share on the 5th of December. This means the annual payment is 3.8% of the current stock price, which is above the average for the industry.
Tsumura's Future Dividend Projections Appear Well Covered By Earnings
If the payments aren't sustainable, a high yield for a few years won't matter that much. Based on the last payment, Tsumura was paying only paying out a fraction of earnings, but the payment was a massive 252% of cash flows. The business might be trying to strike a balance between returning cash to shareholders and reinvesting back into the business, but this high of a payout ratio could definitely force the dividend to be cut if the company runs into a bit of a tough spot.
The next year is set to see EPS grow by 0.1%. Assuming the dividend continues along recent trends, we think the payout ratio could be 32% by next year, which is in a pretty sustainable range.
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Tsumura Has A Solid Track Record
The company has been paying a dividend for a long time, and it has been quite stable which gives us confidence in the future dividend potential. The annual payment during the last 10 years was ¥64.00 in 2015, and the most recent fiscal year payment was ¥136.00. This works out to be a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 7.8% a year over that time. Dividends have grown at a reasonable rate over this period, and without any major cuts in the payment over time, we think this is an attractive combination as it provides a nice boost to shareholder returns.
The Dividend Looks Likely To Grow
Investors who have held shares in the company for the past few years will be happy with the dividend income they have received. Tsumura has impressed us by growing EPS at 19% per year over the past five years. With a decent amount of growth and a low payout ratio, we think this bodes well for Tsumura's prospects of growing its dividend payments in the future.
In Summary
Overall, it's nice to see a consistent dividend payment, but we think that longer term, the current level of payment might be unsustainable. While Tsumura is earning enough to cover the payments, the cash flows are lacking. We don't think Tsumura is a great stock to add to your portfolio if income is your focus.
Companies possessing a stable dividend policy will likely enjoy greater investor interest than those suffering from a more inconsistent approach. At the same time, there are other factors our readers should be conscious of before pouring capital into a stock. Just as an example, we've come across 2 warning signs for Tsumura you should be aware of, and 1 of them makes us a bit uncomfortable. If you are a dividend investor, you might also want to look at our curated list of high yield dividend stocks.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.