Readers hoping to buy Tsumura & Co. (TSE:4540) for its dividend will need to make their move shortly, as the stock is about to trade ex-dividend. The ex-dividend date is two business days before a company's record date in most cases, which is the date on which the company determines which shareholders are entitled to receive a dividend. The ex-dividend date is an important date to be aware of as any purchase of the stock made on or after this date might mean a late settlement that doesn't show on the record date. In other words, investors can purchase Tsumura's shares before the 29th of September in order to be eligible for the dividend, which will be paid on the 5th of December.
The company's next dividend payment will be JP¥68.00 per share. Last year, in total, the company distributed JP¥136 to shareholders. Based on the last year's worth of payments, Tsumura stock has a trailing yield of around 3.6% on the current share price of JP¥3727.00. Dividends are a major contributor to investment returns for long term holders, but only if the dividend continues to be paid. As a result, readers should always check whether Tsumura has been able to grow its dividends, or if the dividend might be cut.
Dividends are usually paid out of company profits, so if a company pays out more than it earned then its dividend is usually at greater risk of being cut. Fortunately Tsumura's payout ratio is modest, at just 40% of profit. Yet cash flows are even more important than profits for assessing a dividend, so we need to see if the company generated enough cash to pay its distribution. Over the last year, it paid out dividends equivalent to 237% of what it generated in free cash flow, a disturbingly high percentage. It's pretty hard to pay out more than you earn, so we wonder how Tsumura intends to continue funding this dividend, or if it could be forced to cut the payment.
Tsumura paid out less in dividends than it reported in profits, but unfortunately it didn't generate enough cash to cover the dividend. Cash is king, as they say, and were Tsumura to repeatedly pay dividends that aren't well covered by cashflow, we would consider this a warning sign.
Check out our latest analysis for Tsumura
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Have Earnings And Dividends Been Growing?
Stocks in companies that generate sustainable earnings growth often make the best dividend prospects, as it is easier to lift the dividend when earnings are rising. If earnings decline and the company is forced to cut its dividend, investors could watch the value of their investment go up in smoke. For this reason, we're glad to see Tsumura's earnings per share have risen 14% per annum over the last five years. Earnings have been growing at a decent rate, but we're concerned dividend payments consumed most of the company's cash flow over the past year.
The main way most investors will assess a company's dividend prospects is by checking the historical rate of dividend growth. Since the start of our data, 10 years ago, Tsumura has lifted its dividend by approximately 7.8% a year on average. We're glad to see dividends rising alongside earnings over a number of years, which may be a sign the company intends to share the growth with shareholders.
The Bottom Line
Is Tsumura an attractive dividend stock, or better left on the shelf? We're glad to see the company has been improving its earnings per share while also paying out a low percentage of income. However, it's not great to see it paying out what we see as an uncomfortably high percentage of its cash flow. While it does have some good things going for it, we're a bit ambivalent and it would take more to convince us of Tsumura's dividend merits.
In light of that, while Tsumura has an appealing dividend, it's worth knowing the risks involved with this stock. To help with this, we've discovered 1 warning sign for Tsumura that you should be aware of before investing in their shares.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.