Earnings Miss: Ono Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd. Missed EPS By 40% And Analysts Are Revising Their Forecasts

Shareholders might have noticed that Ono Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd. (TSE:4528) filed its quarterly result this time last week. The early response was not positive, with shares down 4.9% to JP¥1,532 in the past week. Revenue of JP¥134b surpassed estimates by 4.0%, although statutory earnings per share missed badly, coming in 40% below expectations at JP¥31.83 per share. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.

Check out our latest analysis for Ono Pharmaceutical

Taking into account the latest results, the most recent consensus for Ono Pharmaceutical from twelve analysts is for revenues of JP¥519.0b in 2026. If met, it would imply a modest 6.5% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are forecast to decrease 4.7% to JP¥150 in the same period. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of JP¥519.9b and earnings per share (EPS) of JP¥150 in 2026. The consensus analysts don't seem to have seen anything in these results that would have changed their view on the business, given there's been no major change to their estimates.

The analysts reconfirmed their price target of JP¥1,959, showing that the business is executing well and in line with expectations. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Ono Pharmaceutical at JP¥4,370 per share, while the most bearish prices it at JP¥1,400. As you can see the range of estimates is wide, with the lowest valuation coming in at less than half the most bullish estimate, suggesting there are some strongly diverging views on how analysts think this business will perform. With this in mind, we wouldn't rely too heavily the consensus price target, as it is just an average and analysts clearly have some deeply divergent views on the business.

These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the Ono Pharmaceutical's past performance and to peers in the same industry. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that Ono Pharmaceutical's revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2026 expected to display 5.2% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 13% over the past five years. Compare this to the 41 other companies in this industry with analyst coverage, which are forecast to grow their revenue at 4.3% per year. Factoring in the forecast slowdown in growth, it looks like Ono Pharmaceutical is forecast to grow at about the same rate as the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most obvious conclusion is that there's been no major change in the business' prospects in recent times, with the analysts holding their earnings forecasts steady, in line with previous estimates. They also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, with the company predicted to grow at about the same rate as the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. We have estimates - from multiple Ono Pharmaceutical analysts - going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Before you take the next step you should know about the 1 warning sign for Ono Pharmaceutical that we have uncovered.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.