Chugai Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd. (TSE:4519) Just Released Its Yearly Results And Analysts Are Updating Their Estimates

Investors in Chugai Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd. (TSE:4519) had a good week, as its shares rose 3.6% to close at JP¥6,734 following the release of its full-year results. It was a credible result overall, with revenues of JP¥1.2t and statutory earnings per share of JP¥235 both in line with analyst estimates, showing that Chugai Pharmaceutical is executing in line with expectations. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.

Check out our latest analysis for Chugai Pharmaceutical

Taking into account the latest results, Chugai Pharmaceutical's 14 analysts currently expect revenues in 2025 to be JP¥1.18t, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to accumulate 4.5% to JP¥246. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of JP¥1.18t and earnings per share (EPS) of JP¥243 in 2025. The consensus analysts don't seem to have seen anything in these results that would have changed their view on the business, given there's been no major change to their estimates.

There were no changes to revenue or earnings estimates or the price target of JP¥7,497, suggesting that the company has met expectations in its recent result. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. There are some variant perceptions on Chugai Pharmaceutical, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at JP¥9,900 and the most bearish at JP¥5,300 per share. This is a fairly broad spread of estimates, suggesting that analysts are forecasting a wide range of possible outcomes for the business.

Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. We would highlight that Chugai Pharmaceutical's revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 0.7% annualised growth rate until the end of 2025 being well below the historical 11% p.a. growth over the last five years. Compare this against other companies (with analyst forecasts) in the industry, which are in aggregate expected to see revenue growth of 4.4% annually. So it's pretty clear that, while revenue growth is expected to slow down, the wider industry is also expected to grow faster than Chugai Pharmaceutical.

The Bottom Line

The most obvious conclusion is that there's been no major change in the business' prospects in recent times, with the analysts holding their earnings forecasts steady, in line with previous estimates. Fortunately, the analysts also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Although our data does suggest that Chugai Pharmaceutical's revenue is expected to perform worse than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at JP¥7,497, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Chugai Pharmaceutical. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. We have estimates - from multiple Chugai Pharmaceutical analysts - going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

However, before you get too enthused, we've discovered 1 warning sign for Chugai Pharmaceutical that you should be aware of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.