Shionogi & Co., Ltd. Just Missed EPS By 20%: Here's What Analysts Think Will Happen Next

Shionogi & Co., Ltd. (TSE:4507) missed earnings with its latest first-quarter results, disappointing overly-optimistic forecasters. It wasn't a great result overall - while revenue fell marginally short of analyst estimates at JP¥98b, statutory earnings missed forecasts by 20%, coming in at just JP¥108 per share. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.

Check out our latest analysis for Shionogi

Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus from Shionogi's 13 analysts is for revenues of JP¥435.8b in 2025. This would reflect a reasonable 2.9% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to rise 6.3% to JP¥563. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of JP¥430.5b and earnings per share (EPS) of JP¥553 in 2025. So it's pretty clear that, although the analysts have updated their estimates, there's been no major change in expectations for the business following the latest results.

The analysts reconfirmed their price target of JP¥7,509, showing that the business is executing well and in line with expectations. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. The most optimistic Shionogi analyst has a price target of JP¥9,070 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at JP¥5,400. This shows there is still a bit of diversity in estimates, but analysts don't appear to be totally split on the stock as though it might be a success or failure situation.

Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. We would highlight that Shionogi's revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 3.9% annualised growth rate until the end of 2025 being well below the historical 7.7% p.a. growth over the last five years. Compare this against other companies (with analyst forecasts) in the industry, which are in aggregate expected to see revenue growth of 5.1% annually. So it's pretty clear that, while revenue growth is expected to slow down, the wider industry is also expected to grow faster than Shionogi.

The Bottom Line

The most obvious conclusion is that there's been no major change in the business' prospects in recent times, with the analysts holding their earnings forecasts steady, in line with previous estimates. Fortunately, the analysts also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Although our data does suggest that Shionogi's revenue is expected to perform worse than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at JP¥7,509, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. We have forecasts for Shionogi going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Another thing to consider is whether management and directors have been buying or selling stock recently. We provide an overview of all open market stock trades for the last twelve months on our platform, here.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com