Astellas Pharma Inc. Just Beat Earnings Expectations: Here's What Analysts Think Will Happen Next

Investors in Astellas Pharma Inc. (TSE:4503) had a good week, as its shares rose 7.5% to close at JP¥1,435 following the release of its full-year results. It looks like a credible result overall - although revenues of JP¥1.9t were what the analysts expected, Astellas Pharma surprised by delivering a (statutory) profit of JP¥28.35 per share, an impressive 78% above what was forecast. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.

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Taking into account the latest results, the consensus forecast from Astellas Pharma's 13 analysts is for revenues of JP¥1.98t in 2026. This reflects a credible 3.6% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to soar 154% to JP¥71.97. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of JP¥1.92t and earnings per share (EPS) of JP¥85.60 in 2026. So it's pretty clear the analysts have mixed opinions on Astellas Pharma after the latest results; even though they upped their revenue numbers, it came at the cost of a substantial drop in per-share earnings expectations.

Check out our latest analysis for Astellas Pharma

There's been no major changes to the price target of JP¥1,813, suggesting that the impact of higher forecast revenue and lower earnings won't result in a meaningful change to the business' valuation. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. There are some variant perceptions on Astellas Pharma, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at JP¥2,500 and the most bearish at JP¥1,300 per share. This is a fairly broad spread of estimates, suggesting that analysts are forecasting a wide range of possible outcomes for the business.

Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that Astellas Pharma's revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2026 expected to display 3.6% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 8.6% over the past five years. Compare this to the 41 other companies in this industry with analyst coverage, which are forecast to grow their revenue at 3.6% per year. So it's pretty clear that, while Astellas Pharma's revenue growth is expected to slow, it's expected to grow roughly in line with the industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts downgraded their earnings per share estimates, showing that there has been a clear decline in sentiment following these results. They also upgraded their revenue forecasts, although the latest estimates suggest that Astellas Pharma will grow in line with the overall industry. The consensus price target held steady at JP¥1,813, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Astellas Pharma going out to 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here..

That said, it's still necessary to consider the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 3 warning signs with Astellas Pharma (at least 1 which shouldn't be ignored) , and understanding them should be part of your investment process.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.