Takeda Pharmaceutical Company Limited (TSE:4502) Yearly Results: Here's What Analysts Are Forecasting For This Year

A week ago, Takeda Pharmaceutical Company Limited (TSE:4502) came out with a strong set of annual numbers that could potentially lead to a re-rate of the stock. Results were good overall, with revenues beating analyst predictions by 4.0% to hit JP¥4.3t. Statutory earnings per share (EPS) came in at JP¥92.09, some 3.6% above whatthe analysts had expected. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.

See our latest analysis for Takeda Pharmaceutical

Taking into account the latest results, Takeda Pharmaceutical's 17 analysts currently expect revenues in 2025 to be JP¥4.29t, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are expected to tumble 40% to JP¥55.25 in the same period. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of JP¥4.28t and earnings per share (EPS) of JP¥64.64 in 2025. So there's definitely been a decline in sentiment after the latest results, noting the real cut to new EPS forecasts.

The consensus price target held steady at JP¥4,744, with the analysts seemingly voting that their lower forecast earnings are not expected to lead to a lower stock price in the foreseeable future. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. There are some variant perceptions on Takeda Pharmaceutical, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at JP¥5,600 and the most bearish at JP¥4,200 per share. Still, with such a tight range of estimates, it suggeststhe analysts have a pretty good idea of what they think the company is worth.

These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the Takeda Pharmaceutical's past performance and to peers in the same industry. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that Takeda Pharmaceutical's revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2025 expected to display 0.6% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 9.8% over the past five years. By way of comparison, the other companies in this industry with analyst coverage are forecast to grow their revenue at 5.3% per year. Factoring in the forecast slowdown in growth, it seems obvious that Takeda Pharmaceutical is also expected to grow slower than other industry participants.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts downgraded their earnings per share estimates, showing that there has been a clear decline in sentiment following these results. Fortunately, the analysts also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Although our data does suggest that Takeda Pharmaceutical's revenue is expected to perform worse than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at JP¥4,744, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have estimates - from multiple Takeda Pharmaceutical analysts - going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Even so, be aware that Takeda Pharmaceutical is showing 4 warning signs in our investment analysis , and 2 of those don't sit too well with us...

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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