Takeda Pharmaceutical Company Limited Just Recorded A 6.0% EPS Beat: Here's What Analysts Are Forecasting Next

Takeda Pharmaceutical Company Limited (TSE:4502) just released its latest yearly results and things are looking bullish. The company beat expectations with revenues of JP¥4.3t arriving 4.0% ahead of forecasts. Statutory earnings per share (EPS) were JP¥92.09, 6.0% ahead of estimates. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.

View our latest analysis for Takeda Pharmaceutical

Following the recent earnings report, the consensus from 18 analysts covering Takeda Pharmaceutical is for revenues of JP¥4.06t in 2025. This implies a perceptible 4.8% decline in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to step up 10% to JP¥101. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of JP¥4.03t and earnings per share (EPS) of JP¥148 in 2025. So there's definitely been a decline in sentiment after the latest results, noting the pretty serious reduction to new EPS forecasts.

It might be a surprise to learn that the consensus price target was broadly unchanged at JP¥4,762, with the analysts clearly implying that the forecast decline in earnings is not expected to have much of an impact on valuation. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Takeda Pharmaceutical at JP¥5,600 per share, while the most bearish prices it at JP¥4,200. This is a very narrow spread of estimates, implying either that Takeda Pharmaceutical is an easy company to value, or - more likely - the analysts are relying heavily on some key assumptions.

One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. We would highlight that revenue is expected to reverse, with a forecast 4.8% annualised decline to the end of 2025. That is a notable change from historical growth of 9.8% over the last five years. Compare this with our data, which suggests that other companies in the same industry are, in aggregate, expected to see their revenue grow 4.5% per year. So although its revenues are forecast to shrink, this cloud does not come with a silver lining - Takeda Pharmaceutical is expected to lag the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts downgraded their earnings per share estimates, showing that there has been a clear decline in sentiment following these results. On the plus side, there were no major changes to revenue estimates; although forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. We have forecasts for Takeda Pharmaceutical going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

You should always think about risks though. Case in point, we've spotted 4 warning signs for Takeda Pharmaceutical you should be aware of, and 2 of them are concerning.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.