Earnings Beat: Takeda Pharmaceutical Company Limited Just Beat Analyst Forecasts, And Analysts Have Been Updating Their Models

As you might know, Takeda Pharmaceutical Company Limited (TSE:4502) just kicked off its latest first-quarter results with some very strong numbers. It was a solid earnings report, with revenues and statutory earnings per share (EPS) both coming in strong. Revenues were 12% higher than the analysts had forecast, at JP¥1.2t, while EPS were JP¥60.71 beating analyst models by 50%. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. So we gathered the latest post-earnings forecasts to see what estimates suggest is in store for next year.

Check out our latest analysis for Takeda Pharmaceutical

Following last week's earnings report, Takeda Pharmaceutical's 17 analysts are forecasting 2025 revenues to be JP¥4.40t, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are forecast to crater 51% to JP¥46.77 in the same period. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of JP¥4.35t and earnings per share (EPS) of JP¥55.28 in 2025. So there's definitely been a decline in sentiment after the latest results, noting the real cut to new EPS forecasts.

The consensus price target held steady at JP¥4,698, with the analysts seemingly voting that their lower forecast earnings are not expected to lead to a lower stock price in the foreseeable future. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. There are some variant perceptions on Takeda Pharmaceutical, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at JP¥5,700 and the most bearish at JP¥4,200 per share. As you can see, analysts are not all in agreement on the stock's future, but the range of estimates is still reasonably narrow, which could suggest that the outcome is not totally unpredictable.

Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. These estimates imply that revenue is expected to slow, with a forecast annualised decline of 0.5% by the end of 2025. This indicates a significant reduction from annual growth of 8.7% over the last five years. Compare this with our data, which suggests that other companies in the same industry are, in aggregate, expected to see their revenue grow 5.2% per year. So although its revenues are forecast to shrink, this cloud does not come with a silver lining - Takeda Pharmaceutical is expected to lag the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts downgraded their earnings per share estimates, showing that there has been a clear decline in sentiment following these results. On the plus side, there were no major changes to revenue estimates; although forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Takeda Pharmaceutical. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. We have estimates - from multiple Takeda Pharmaceutical analysts - going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Don't forget that there may still be risks. For instance, we've identified 4 warning signs for Takeda Pharmaceutical (1 is a bit unpleasant) you should be aware of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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