Earnings Report: Fuji Media Holdings, Inc. Missed Revenue Estimates By 11%

It's been a pretty great week for Fuji Media Holdings, Inc. (TSE:4676) shareholders, with its shares surging 15% to JP¥2,516 in the week since its latest third-quarter results. Revenues were JP¥145b, 11% below analyst expectations, although losses didn't appear to worsen significantly, with a statutory per-share loss of JP¥169 being in line with what the analysts anticipated. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.

View our latest analysis for Fuji Media Holdings

Taking into account the latest results, the most recent consensus for Fuji Media Holdings from five analysts is for revenues of JP¥605.3b in 2026. If met, it would imply a reasonable 6.3% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are expected to nosedive 22% to JP¥158 in the same period. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of JP¥618.2b and earnings per share (EPS) of JP¥165 in 2026. It's pretty clear that pessimism has reared its head after the latest results, leading to a weaker revenue outlook and a minor downgrade to earnings per share estimates.

Despite the cuts to forecast earnings, there was no real change to the JP¥2,178 price target, showing that the analysts don't think the changes have a meaningful impact on its intrinsic value. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. The most optimistic Fuji Media Holdings analyst has a price target of JP¥2,990 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at JP¥1,750. This shows there is still a bit of diversity in estimates, but analysts don't appear to be totally split on the stock as though it might be a success or failure situation.

One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. One thing stands out from these estimates, which is that Fuji Media Holdings is forecast to grow faster in the future than it has in the past, with revenues expected to display 5.0% annualised growth until the end of 2026. If achieved, this would be a much better result than the 1.6% annual decline over the past five years. Compare this against analyst estimates for the broader industry, which suggest that (in aggregate) industry revenues are expected to grow 4.3% annually. So while Fuji Media Holdings' revenues are expected to improve, it seems that it is expected to grow at about the same rate as the overall industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts downgraded their earnings per share estimates, showing that there has been a clear decline in sentiment following these results. They also downgraded their revenue estimates, although as we saw earlier, forecast growth is only expected to be about the same as the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at JP¥2,178, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have estimates - from multiple Fuji Media Holdings analysts - going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Even so, be aware that Fuji Media Holdings is showing 3 warning signs in our investment analysis , and 1 of those makes us a bit uncomfortable...

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.