Nippon Steel (TSE:5401) Will Pay A Smaller Dividend Than Last Year

Nippon Steel Corporation (TSE:5401) has announced that on 8th of December, it will be paying a dividend of¥60.00, which a reduction from last year's comparable dividend. The yield is still above the industry average at 4.1%.

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Nippon Steel's Distributions May Be Difficult To Sustain

Impressive dividend yields are good, but this doesn't matter much if the payments can't be sustained. While Nippon Steel is not profitable, it is paying out less than 75% of its free cash flow, which means that there is plenty left over for reinvestment into the business. We generally think that cash flow is more important than accounting measures of profit, so we are fairly comfortable with the dividend at this level.

Analysts are expecting EPS to grow by 37.8% over the next 12 months. While it is good to see income moving in the right direction, it still looks like the company won't achieve profitability. However, the positive cash flow ratio gives us some comfort about the sustainability of the dividend.

View our latest analysis for Nippon Steel

Dividend Volatility

Although the company has a long dividend history, it has been cut at least once in the last 10 years. Since 2015, the annual payment back then was ¥50.00, compared to the most recent full-year payment of ¥120.00. This means that it has been growing its distributions at 9.1% per annum over that time. We like to see dividends have grown at a reasonable rate, but with at least one substantial cut in the payments, we're not certain this dividend stock would be ideal for someone intending to live on the income.

The Company Could Face Some Challenges Growing The Dividend

Given that the dividend has been cut in the past, we need to check if earnings are growing and if that might lead to stronger dividends in the future. It's encouraging to see that Nippon Steel has been growing its earnings per share at 27% a year over the past five years. The company hasn't been turning a profit, but it running in the right direction. If the company can turn a profit relatively soon, we can see this becoming a reliable income stock.

An additional note is that the company has been raising capital by issuing stock equal to 10% of shares outstanding in the last 12 months. Trying to grow the dividend when issuing new shares reminds us of the ancient Greek tale of Sisyphus - perpetually pushing a boulder uphill. Companies that consistently issue new shares are often suboptimal from a dividend perspective.

Our Thoughts On Nippon Steel's Dividend

Overall, the dividend looks like it may have been a bit high, which explains why it has now been cut. The company is generating plenty of cash, which could maintain the dividend for a while, but the track record hasn't been great. This company is not in the top tier of income providing stocks.

Market movements attest to how highly valued a consistent dividend policy is compared to one which is more unpredictable. At the same time, there are other factors our readers should be conscious of before pouring capital into a stock. For example, we've identified 2 warning signs for Nippon Steel (1 makes us a bit uncomfortable!) that you should be aware of before investing. Is Nippon Steel not quite the opportunity you were looking for? Why not check out our selection of top dividend stocks.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.