Nippon Steel Corporation

TSE:5401 Stock Report

Market Cap: JP¥3.1t

Nippon Steel Valuation

Is 5401 undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

5/6

Valuation Score 5/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of 5401 when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: 5401 (¥2982) is trading below our estimate of fair value (¥5190.59)

Significantly Below Fair Value: 5401 is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for 5401?

Key metric: As 5401 is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for 5401. This is calculated by dividing 5401's market cap by their current earnings.
What is 5401's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio6.3x
EarningsJP¥492.48b
Market CapJP¥3.12t

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does 5401's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for 5401 vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average9.1x
5411 JFE Holdings
8.2x9.6%JP¥1.1t
5406 Kobe Steel
6.8x1.1%JP¥580.7b
5444 Yamato Kogyo
7.5x-0.6%JP¥464.8b
5463 Maruichi Steel Tube
14.2x7.6%JP¥274.8b
5401 Nippon Steel
6.3x9.8%JP¥3.1t

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: 5401 is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (6.3x) compared to the peer average (9.1x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does 5401's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the JP Metals and Mining Industry?

0 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies available in this PE range
5401 6.3xIndustry Avg. 9.0xNo. of Companies13PE0612182430+
0 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: 5401 is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (6.3x) compared to the JP Metals and Mining industry average (9x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is 5401's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

5401 PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio6.3x
Fair PE Ratio16.2x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: 5401 is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (6.3x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (16.2x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst 5401 forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentJP¥2,982.00
JP¥3,733.33
+25.2%
18.6%JP¥4,700.00JP¥2,200.00n/a9
Dec ’25JP¥3,059.00
JP¥3,800.00
+24.2%
19.6%JP¥4,700.00JP¥2,200.00n/a9
Nov ’25JP¥3,053.00
JP¥3,833.33
+25.6%
19.1%JP¥4,700.00JP¥2,200.00n/a9
Oct ’25JP¥3,205.00
JP¥3,900.00
+21.7%
15.8%JP¥4,700.00JP¥2,600.00n/a9
Sep ’25JP¥3,310.00
JP¥3,966.67
+19.8%
16.7%JP¥4,700.00JP¥2,600.00n/a9
Aug ’25JP¥3,192.00
JP¥4,005.00
+25.5%
15.7%JP¥4,700.00JP¥2,600.00n/a10
Jul ’25JP¥3,456.00
JP¥4,035.00
+16.8%
15.8%JP¥4,700.00JP¥2,600.00n/a10
Jun ’25JP¥3,432.00
JP¥4,130.00
+20.3%
16.7%JP¥4,900.00JP¥2,600.00n/a10
May ’25JP¥3,476.00
JP¥4,160.00
+19.7%
16.1%JP¥4,900.00JP¥2,600.00n/a10
Apr ’25JP¥3,614.00
JP¥4,060.00
+12.3%
15.4%JP¥4,700.00JP¥2,600.00n/a10
Mar ’25JP¥3,784.00
JP¥3,991.00
+5.5%
14.6%JP¥4,600.00JP¥2,600.00n/a10
Feb ’25JP¥3,546.00
JP¥3,831.00
+8.0%
16.0%JP¥4,600.00JP¥2,500.00n/a10
Jan ’25JP¥3,230.00
JP¥3,856.00
+19.4%
15.4%JP¥4,600.00JP¥2,500.00n/a10
Dec ’24JP¥3,479.00
JP¥3,856.00
+10.8%
15.4%JP¥4,600.00JP¥2,500.00JP¥3,059.0010
Nov ’24JP¥3,318.00
JP¥3,770.00
+13.6%
15.8%JP¥4,600.00JP¥2,500.00JP¥3,053.0010
Oct ’24JP¥3,505.00
JP¥3,607.27
+2.9%
15.8%JP¥4,600.00JP¥2,400.00JP¥3,205.0011
Sep ’24JP¥3,506.00
JP¥3,552.73
+1.3%
14.0%JP¥4,250.00JP¥2,400.00JP¥3,310.0011
Aug ’24JP¥3,291.00
JP¥3,412.50
+3.7%
16.1%JP¥4,000.00JP¥2,050.00JP¥3,192.0012
Jul ’24JP¥3,004.00
JP¥3,384.17
+12.7%
17.5%JP¥4,100.00JP¥2,050.00JP¥3,456.0012
Jun ’24JP¥2,756.50
JP¥3,420.83
+24.1%
17.5%JP¥4,100.00JP¥2,050.00JP¥3,432.0012
May ’24JP¥2,901.50
JP¥3,414.17
+17.7%
17.1%JP¥4,100.00JP¥2,050.00JP¥3,476.0012
Apr ’24JP¥3,120.00
JP¥3,301.67
+5.8%
19.6%JP¥4,100.00JP¥2,050.00JP¥3,614.0012
Mar ’24JP¥3,095.00
JP¥2,968.18
-4.1%
25.2%JP¥4,000.00JP¥1,650.00JP¥3,784.0011
Feb ’24JP¥2,719.00
JP¥2,689.09
-1.1%
21.9%JP¥3,500.00JP¥1,650.00JP¥3,546.0011
Jan ’24JP¥2,292.00
JP¥2,655.45
+15.9%
23.2%JP¥3,500.00JP¥1,650.00JP¥3,230.0011
Dec ’23JP¥2,194.00
JP¥2,660.00
+21.2%
23.6%JP¥3,600.00JP¥1,650.00JP¥3,479.0011

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price, but analysts are not within a statistically confident range of agreement.

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2024/12/21 20:40
End of Day Share Price 2024/12/20 00:00
Earnings2024/09/30
Annual Earnings2024/03/31

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on .

Analyst Sources

Nippon Steel Corporation is covered by 32 analysts. 9 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
Toshiyuki JohnoBNP Paribas Securities (Asia)
Takashi EnomotoBofA Global Research
Toshiyuki JohnoCitigroup Global Markets Japan Inc.