JMDC Inc. Just Missed EPS By 33%: Here's What Analysts Think Will Happen Next

As you might know, JMDC Inc. (TSE:4483) last week released its latest yearly, and things did not turn out so great for shareholders. It wasn't a great result overall - while revenue fell marginally short of analyst estimates at JP¥32b, statutory earnings missed forecasts by an incredible 33%, coming in at just JP¥71.76 per share. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. With this in mind, we've gathered the latest statutory forecasts to see what the analysts are expecting for next year.

See our latest analysis for JMDC

Taking into account the latest results, the consensus forecast from JMDC's twelve analysts is for revenues of JP¥42.7b in 2025. This reflects a huge 32% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to leap 44% to JP¥101. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of JP¥42.5b and earnings per share (EPS) of JP¥110 in 2025. So it looks like there's been a small decline in overall sentiment after the recent results - there's been no major change to revenue estimates, but the analysts did make a small dip in their earnings per share forecasts.

The consensus price target held steady at JP¥5,353, with the analysts seemingly voting that their lower forecast earnings are not expected to lead to a lower stock price in the foreseeable future. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. There are some variant perceptions on JMDC, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at JP¥7,000 and the most bearish at JP¥3,330 per share. Note the wide gap in analyst price targets? This implies to us that there is a fairly broad range of possible scenarios for the underlying business.

Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. It's clear from the latest estimates that JMDC's rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with the forecast 32% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2025 noticeably faster than its historical growth of 23% p.a. over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to grow their revenue at 12% per year. Factoring in the forecast acceleration in revenue, it's pretty clear that JMDC is expected to grow much faster than its industry.

The Bottom Line

The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for JMDC. Happily, there were no major changes to revenue forecasts, with the business still expected to grow faster than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at JP¥5,353, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. We have forecasts for JMDC going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Even so, be aware that JMDC is showing 2 warning signs in our investment analysis , you should know about...

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.