Ichiyoshi Securities Co., Ltd.'s (TSE:8624) 27% Price Boost Is Out Of Tune With Earnings

Ichiyoshi Securities Co., Ltd. (TSE:8624) shares have had a really impressive month, gaining 27% after a shaky period beforehand. Looking further back, the 20% rise over the last twelve months isn't too bad notwithstanding the strength over the last 30 days.

Although its price has surged higher, you could still be forgiven for feeling indifferent about Ichiyoshi Securities' P/E ratio of 13.8x, since the median price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio in Japan is also close to 13x. While this might not raise any eyebrows, if the P/E ratio is not justified investors could be missing out on a potential opportunity or ignoring looming disappointment.

Ichiyoshi Securities certainly has been doing a great job lately as it's been growing earnings at a really rapid pace. The P/E is probably moderate because investors think this strong earnings growth might not be enough to outperform the broader market in the near future. If that doesn't eventuate, then existing shareholders have reason to be feeling optimistic about the future direction of the share price.

See our latest analysis for Ichiyoshi Securities

Although there are no analyst estimates available for Ichiyoshi Securities, take a look at this free data-rich visualisation to see how the company stacks up on earnings, revenue and cash flow.

What Are Growth Metrics Telling Us About The P/E?

Ichiyoshi Securities' P/E ratio would be typical for a company that's only expected to deliver moderate growth, and importantly, perform in line with the market.

Taking a look back first, we see that the company grew earnings per share by an impressive 92% last year. Despite this strong recent growth, it's still struggling to catch up as its three-year EPS frustratingly shrank by 21% overall. So unfortunately, we have to acknowledge that the company has not done a great job of growing earnings over that time.

In contrast to the company, the rest of the market is expected to grow by 12% over the next year, which really puts the company's recent medium-term earnings decline into perspective.

In light of this, it's somewhat alarming that Ichiyoshi Securities' P/E sits in line with the majority of other companies. It seems most investors are ignoring the recent poor growth rate and are hoping for a turnaround in the company's business prospects. Only the boldest would assume these prices are sustainable as a continuation of recent earnings trends is likely to weigh on the share price eventually.

The Key Takeaway

Ichiyoshi Securities appears to be back in favour with a solid price jump getting its P/E back in line with most other companies. It's argued the price-to-earnings ratio is an inferior measure of value within certain industries, but it can be a powerful business sentiment indicator.

Our examination of Ichiyoshi Securities revealed its shrinking earnings over the medium-term aren't impacting its P/E as much as we would have predicted, given the market is set to grow. When we see earnings heading backwards and underperforming the market forecasts, we suspect the share price is at risk of declining, sending the moderate P/E lower. Unless the recent medium-term conditions improve, it's challenging to accept these prices as being reasonable.

Plus, you should also learn about this 1 warning sign we've spotted with Ichiyoshi Securities.

Of course, you might find a fantastic investment by looking at a few good candidates. So take a peek at this free list of companies with a strong growth track record, trading on a low P/E.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.