Oriental Land Co., Ltd. Just Beat Earnings Expectations: Here's What Analysts Think Will Happen Next

As you might know, Oriental Land Co., Ltd. (TSE:4661) recently reported its third-quarter numbers. The result was positive overall - although revenues of JP¥208b were in line with what the analysts predicted, Oriental Land surprised by delivering a statutory profit of JP¥30.52 per share, modestly greater than expected. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. With this in mind, we've gathered the latest statutory forecasts to see what the analysts are expecting for next year.

View our latest analysis for Oriental Land

Taking into account the latest results, the consensus forecast from Oriental Land's 16 analysts is for revenues of JP¥727.2b in 2026. This reflects a decent 11% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to ascend 16% to JP¥82.05. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of JP¥727.5b and earnings per share (EPS) of JP¥82.13 in 2026. So it's pretty clear that, although the analysts have updated their estimates, there's been no major change in expectations for the business following the latest results.

The analysts reconfirmed their price target of JP¥4,463, showing that the business is executing well and in line with expectations. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. The most optimistic Oriental Land analyst has a price target of JP¥5,500 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at JP¥2,800. This is a fairly broad spread of estimates, suggesting that analysts are forecasting a wide range of possible outcomes for the business.

One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that Oriental Land's revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2026 expected to display 8.4% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 18% over the past five years. Compare this to the 158 other companies in this industry with analyst coverage, which are forecast to grow their revenue at 6.8% per year. So it's pretty clear that, while Oriental Land's revenue growth is expected to slow, it's expected to grow roughly in line with the industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that there's been no major change in sentiment, with the analysts reconfirming that the business is performing in line with their previous earnings per share estimates. Happily, there were no real changes to revenue forecasts, with the business still expected to grow in line with the overall industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have estimates - from multiple Oriental Land analysts - going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Another thing to consider is whether management and directors have been buying or selling stock recently. We provide an overview of all open market stock trades for the last twelve months on our platform, here.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.