Oriental Land Future Growth
Future criteria checks 1/6
Oriental Land is forecast to grow earnings and revenue by 5.4% and 5.6% per annum respectively. EPS is expected to grow by 5.6% per annum. Return on equity is forecast to be 10.5% in 3 years.
Key information
5.4%
Earnings growth rate
5.61%
EPS growth rate
| Hospitality earnings growth | 12.9% |
| Revenue growth rate | 5.6% |
| Future return on equity | 10.51% |
| Analyst coverage | Good |
| Last updated | 12 Jun 2026 |
Recent future growth updates
Analysis Article • May 01
Analysts Have Been Trimming Their Oriental Land Co., Ltd. (TSE:4661) Price Target After Its Latest Report
It's been a mediocre week for Oriental Land Co., Ltd. ( TSE:4661 ) shareholders, with the stock dropping 12% to...Analysis Article • Jan 31
Here's What Analysts Are Forecasting For Oriental Land Co., Ltd. (TSE:4661) After Its Third-Quarter Results
Shareholders might have noticed that Oriental Land Co., Ltd. ( TSE:4661 ) filed its third-quarter result this time last...Analysis Article • Aug 01
Oriental Land Co., Ltd. Just Recorded A 6.8% EPS Beat: Here's What Analysts Are Forecasting Next
A week ago, Oriental Land Co., Ltd. ( TSE:4661 ) came out with a strong set of first-quarter numbers that could...Recent updates
Narrative Update • Jun 01
4661: Cruise Expansion And Rising Dividends Will Support Future Share Repricing
Analysts have trimmed their fair value estimate for Oriental Land from ¥5,359 to ¥4,808, reflecting updated assumptions that combine higher projected revenue growth with slightly lower profit margins and a modestly reduced future P/E multiple. What's in the News Board meeting scheduled for April 28, 2026 to consider dividends from surplus, with a record date of March 31, 2026, and other matters on the agenda (Board Meeting, Apr 28, 2026).
Narrative Update • May 13
4661: New Cruise Subsidiary Will Support Future Earnings Upside Potential
Analysts have trimmed their price target on Oriental Land to ¥3,225 from ¥3,553, citing slightly lower assumed profit margins and a reduced future P/E multiple, even though they maintain similar views on revenue growth and discount rates. What's in the News Board meeting scheduled for April 28, 2026, to consider a dividend from surplus with a record date of March 31, 2026, alongside other agenda items (Board Meeting, April 28, 2026).Analysis Article • May 01
Analysts Have Been Trimming Their Oriental Land Co., Ltd. (TSE:4661) Price Target After Its Latest Report
It's been a mediocre week for Oriental Land Co., Ltd. ( TSE:4661 ) shareholders, with the stock dropping 12% to...Narrative Update • Apr 24
4661: New Cruise Subsidiary Will Support Long Term Upside Potential
Analysts have kept Oriental Land's fair value estimate steady at ¥3,553.70. This reflects only marginal tweaks to inputs such as the discount rate, revenue growth, profit margin and future P/E assumptions, rather than a change in overall conviction on the stock's valuation.Narrative Update • Apr 10
4661: Cruise Subsidiary Creation Will Support Long Term Upside Potential
Analysts have slightly reduced their price target on Oriental Land to ¥3,553.70 from ¥3,584.47. A modestly higher discount rate and a small adjustment to the assumed future P/E multiple temper the valuation, while revenue growth and profit margin assumptions remain essentially unchanged.Narrative Update • Mar 27
4661: Cruise Subsidiary Expansion Will Support Future Upside Potential
Analysts have trimmed their price target for Oriental Land by about ¥185 to reflect an updated fair value of ¥3,584, citing slightly lower assumed profit margin and P/E multiples, while modeled revenue growth and discount rate inputs remain broadly similar to prior estimates. What's in the News A board meeting is scheduled for March 24, 2026, to review the establishment of a new subsidiary, ORIENTAL LAND CRUISE CO., LTD.
Narrative Update • Mar 13
4661: Lower Future P/E Will Restrain Upside Despite Stronger Margin Assumptions
Analysts have kept their ¥2,420 price target on Oriental Land unchanged, citing slightly adjusted assumptions for the discount rate, revenue growth, profit margin, and future P/E, which they view as offsetting each other at the current valuation level. Valuation Changes Fair Value: Model output remains unchanged at ¥2,420, with no revision to the central valuation level.Narrative Update • Feb 26
4661: Future P/E Expansion Will Support A More Optimistic Share Repricing
Analysts have trimmed their price target for Oriental Land to ¥5,359 from ¥5,428, citing updated assumptions that include slightly adjusted discount rates, revenue growth, profit margin and future P/E expectations. Valuation Changes Fair Value: Adjusted slightly from ¥5,428.20 to ¥5,359.27.Analysis Article • Feb 16
These 4 Measures Indicate That Oriental Land (TSE:4661) Is Using Debt Safely
Some say volatility, rather than debt, is the best way to think about risk as an investor, but Warren Buffett famously...Narrative Update • Feb 12
4661: Lower Future P/E And Treasury Stock Disposal Will Pressure Upside Potential
Analysts have revised their price target on Oriental Land from ¥2,700 to ¥2,420, citing updated assumptions around revenue growth, profit margins, the discount rate, and future P/E levels. What's in the News A board meeting is scheduled for November 25, 2025, to consider the disposal of treasury stock through a third-party allotment.Analysis Article • Jan 31
Here's What Analysts Are Forecasting For Oriental Land Co., Ltd. (TSE:4661) After Its Third-Quarter Results
Shareholders might have noticed that Oriental Land Co., Ltd. ( TSE:4661 ) filed its third-quarter result this time last...Narrative Update • Jan 29
4661: Higher Margins And Treasury Stock Disposal Will Support Future Upside
Analysts have trimmed their price target on Oriental Land to reflect a lower fair value estimate of ¥3,769.08 from ¥3,964.84, citing updates to assumptions around the discount rate, revenue growth, profit margin and future P/E. What's in the News A board meeting is scheduled for November 25, 2025, to consider the disposal of treasury stock through a third-party allotment (Key Developments).Analysis Article • Jan 22
Is Oriental Land Co., Ltd. (TSE:4661) Expensive For A Reason? A Look At Its Intrinsic Value
Key Insights Using the 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity, Oriental Land fair value estimate is JP¥2,205 Oriental Land is...Analysis Article • Jan 07
Earnings Not Telling The Story For Oriental Land Co., Ltd. (TSE:4661)
With a price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 37x Oriental Land Co., Ltd. ( TSE:4661 ) may be sending very bearish...Analysis Article • Dec 22
Returns At Oriental Land (TSE:4661) Are On The Way Up
Finding a business that has the potential to grow substantially is not easy, but it is possible if we look at a few key...Narrative Update • Oct 31
4661: Future Outlook Will Improve With Upcoming Earnings And Leadership Decisions
Narrative Update on Oriental Land: Analyst Price Target Revision Analysts have raised their fair value estimate for Oriental Land from ¥3,882.93 to ¥3,964.84. This revision is based on modest adjustments in discount rate and profit assumptions that reflect a slightly more optimistic outlook for the company.Narrative Update • Sep 20
Fantasy Springs Opening Will Boost Guest Attendance At The Theme Park
Oriental Land's slightly higher consensus revenue growth forecast has supported a marginal increase in its analyst price target from ¥3852 to ¥3883. What's in the News Board meeting held to consider and approve the disposal of treasury stock with Custody Bank of Japan, Ltd, along with other matters.Analysis Article • Sep 06
Oriental Land Co., Ltd.'s (TSE:4661) Share Price Could Signal Some Risk
When close to half the companies in Japan have price-to-earnings ratios (or "P/E's") below 14x, you may consider...Analysis Article • Aug 19
Oriental Land (TSE:4661) Is Doing The Right Things To Multiply Its Share Price
TSE:4661 1 Year Share Price vs Fair Value Explore Oriental Land's Fair Values from the Community and select yours There...Analysis Article • Aug 01
Oriental Land Co., Ltd. Just Recorded A 6.8% EPS Beat: Here's What Analysts Are Forecasting Next
A week ago, Oriental Land Co., Ltd. ( TSE:4661 ) came out with a strong set of first-quarter numbers that could...Analysis Article • Jul 12
These 4 Measures Indicate That Oriental Land (TSE:4661) Is Using Debt Safely
The external fund manager backed by Berkshire Hathaway's Charlie Munger, Li Lu, makes no bones about it when he says...
New Narrative • Dec 22
Fantasy Springs Opening And Resort Innovations Set To Boost Revenue And Enhance Shareholder Value
New attractions and improved park experiences are expected to boost revenues and maintain consistent attendance year-round.Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts
| Date | Revenue | Earnings | Free Cash Flow | Cash from Op | Avg. No. Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3/31/2029 | 845,581 | 142,207 | 61,432 | 229,623 | 12 |
| 3/31/2028 | 774,174 | 131,368 | 43,592 | 203,021 | 13 |
| 3/31/2027 | 737,822 | 123,430 | -34,550 | 190,667 | 14 |
| 3/31/2026 | 704,539 | 121,881 | 97,677 | 181,281 | N/A |
| 12/31/2025 | 704,427 | 127,960 | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 9/30/2025 | 698,296 | 126,947 | 114,188 | 183,298 | N/A |
| 6/30/2025 | 694,703 | 127,188 | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 3/31/2025 | 679,374 | 124,160 | 92,691 | 195,388 | N/A |
| 12/31/2024 | 657,390 | 116,159 | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 9/30/2024 | 631,430 | 111,199 | 85,767 | 180,782 | N/A |
| 6/30/2024 | 626,310 | 117,237 | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 3/31/2024 | 618,493 | 120,225 | 144,981 | 197,674 | N/A |
| 12/31/2023 | 598,374 | 120,503 | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 9/30/2023 | 563,410 | 108,824 | 99,101 | 190,156 | N/A |
| 6/30/2023 | 525,561 | 96,068 | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 3/31/2023 | 483,123 | 80,734 | 74,524 | 167,729 | N/A |
| 12/31/2022 | 436,440 | 69,281 | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 9/30/2022 | 382,203 | 48,717 | 30,478 | 112,984 | N/A |
| 6/30/2022 | 324,073 | 26,231 | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 3/31/2022 | 275,728 | 8,067 | -50,599 | 54,602 | N/A |
| 12/31/2021 | 223,781 | -26,614 | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 9/30/2021 | 209,000 | -38,286 | -100,120 | 8,146 | N/A |
| 6/30/2021 | 214,238 | -35,378 | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 3/31/2021 | 170,581 | -54,190 | -140,783 | -23,834 | N/A |
| 12/31/2020 | 211,358 | -37,503 | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 9/30/2020 | 275,171 | -10,962 | -133,445 | -10,309 | N/A |
| 6/30/2020 | 350,062 | 14,423 | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 3/31/2020 | 464,450 | 62,217 | -60,996 | 73,336 | N/A |
| 12/31/2019 | 516,186 | 86,918 | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 9/30/2019 | 523,359 | 90,001 | N/A | 123,930 | N/A |
| 6/30/2019 | 525,428 | 92,067 | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 3/31/2019 | 525,622 | 90,286 | N/A | 134,974 | N/A |
| 12/31/2018 | 514,425 | 86,099 | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 9/30/2018 | 497,388 | 82,075 | N/A | 123,787 | N/A |
| 6/30/2018 | 490,152 | 81,398 | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 3/31/2018 | 479,280 | 81,191 | N/A | 122,860 | N/A |
| 12/31/2017 | 481,676 | 86,507 | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 9/30/2017 | 482,796 | 86,744 | N/A | 125,211 | N/A |
| 6/30/2017 | 480,644 | 87,014 | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 3/31/2017 | 477,748 | 82,374 | N/A | 117,611 | N/A |
| 12/31/2016 | 471,469 | 75,947 | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 9/30/2016 | 470,851 | 76,101 | N/A | 119,372 | N/A |
| 6/30/2016 | 469,037 | 74,687 | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 3/31/2016 | 465,353 | 73,928 | N/A | 110,910 | N/A |
| 12/31/2015 | 468,643 | 74,511 | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 9/30/2015 | 465,602 | 71,677 | N/A | 108,286 | N/A |
| 6/30/2015 | 465,349 | 70,461 | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Analyst Future Growth Forecasts
Earnings vs Savings Rate: 4661's forecast earnings growth (5.4% per year) is above the savings rate (0.8%).
Earnings vs Market: 4661's earnings (5.4% per year) are forecast to grow slower than the JP market (9.3% per year).
High Growth Earnings: 4661's earnings are forecast to grow, but not significantly.
Revenue vs Market: 4661's revenue (5.6% per year) is forecast to grow slower than the JP market (6% per year).
High Growth Revenue: 4661's revenue (5.6% per year) is forecast to grow slower than 20% per year.
Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts
Future Return on Equity
Future ROE: 4661's Return on Equity is forecast to be low in 3 years time (10.5%).
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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status
| Data | Last Updated (UTC time) |
|---|---|
| Company Analysis | 2026/06/13 19:34 |
| End of Day Share Price | 2026/06/12 00:00 |
| Earnings | 2026/03/31 |
| Annual Earnings | 2026/03/31 |
Data Sources
The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.
| Package | Data | Timeframe | Example US Source * |
|---|---|---|---|
| Company Financials | 10 years |
| |
| Analyst Consensus Estimates | +3 years |
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| Market Prices | 30 years |
| |
| Ownership | 10 years |
| |
| Management | 10 years |
| |
| Key Developments | 10 years |
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* Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.
Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more.
Analysis Model and Snowflake
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Industry and Sector Metrics
Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on Github.
Analyst Sources
Oriental Land Co., Ltd. is covered by 27 analysts. 14 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.
| Analyst | Institution |
|---|---|
| Yuki Okishio | Barclays |
| Yoshitaka Nagao | BofA Global Research |
| Rudi Wei | China International Capital Corporation Limited |