Oriental Land Co., Ltd. Earnings Missed Analyst Estimates: Here's What Analysts Are Forecasting Now

The analysts might have been a bit too bullish on Oriental Land Co., Ltd. (TSE:4661), given that the company fell short of expectations when it released its half-yearly results last week. It wasn't a great result overall - while revenue fell marginally short of analyst estimates at JP¥297b, statutory earnings missed forecasts by an incredible 40%, coming in at just JP¥12.86 per share. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on Oriental Land after the latest results.

View our latest analysis for Oriental Land

Taking into account the latest results, the consensus forecast from Oriental Land's 17 analysts is for revenues of JP¥688.9b in 2025. This reflects a decent 9.1% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to increase 8.6% to JP¥72.89. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of JP¥698.2b and earnings per share (EPS) of JP¥78.77 in 2025. So it looks like there's been a small decline in overall sentiment after the recent results - there's been no major change to revenue estimates, but the analysts did make a minor downgrade to their earnings per share forecasts.

The consensus price target held steady at JP¥4,605, with the analysts seemingly voting that their lower forecast earnings are not expected to lead to a lower stock price in the foreseeable future. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. The most optimistic Oriental Land analyst has a price target of JP¥6,500 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at JP¥3,000. This is a fairly broad spread of estimates, suggesting that analysts are forecasting a wide range of possible outcomes for the business.

These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the Oriental Land's past performance and to peers in the same industry. The analysts are definitely expecting Oriental Land's growth to accelerate, with the forecast 19% annualised growth to the end of 2025 ranking favourably alongside historical growth of 14% per annum over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to grow their revenue at 6.6% per year. Factoring in the forecast acceleration in revenue, it's pretty clear that Oriental Land is expected to grow much faster than its industry.

The Bottom Line

The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for Oriental Land. Fortunately, they also reconfirmed their revenue numbers, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Additionally, our data suggests that revenue is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at JP¥4,605, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. We have forecasts for Oriental Land going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Another thing to consider is whether management and directors have been buying or selling stock recently. We provide an overview of all open market stock trades for the last twelve months on our platform, here.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.