Oriental Land Co., Ltd.

TSE:4661 Stock Report

Market Cap: JP¥5.6t

Oriental Land Valuation

Is 4661 undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

0/6

Valuation Score 0/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of 4661 when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: 4661 (¥3380) is trading above our estimate of fair value (¥1639.65)

Significantly Below Fair Value: 4661 is trading above our estimate of fair value.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for 4661?

Key metric: As 4661 is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for 4661. This is calculated by dividing 4661's market cap by their current earnings.
What is 4661's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio50.4x
EarningsJP¥111.20b
Market CapJP¥5.60t

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does 4661's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for 4661 vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average26.9x
4680 Round One
21.9x10.9%JP¥362.8b
9166 GENDA
60.2x20.6%JP¥211.4b
6412 Heiwa
11.7xn/aJP¥228.8b
2157 Koshidaka Holdings
14x13.9%JP¥94.0b
4661 Oriental Land
50.4x9.5%JP¥5.6t

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: 4661 is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (50.4x) compared to the peer average (26.9x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does 4661's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the JP Hospitality Industry?

2 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
7625 Global-Dining
4xn/aUS$24.84m
5534 Angel Group
2.9xn/aUS$22.19m
No more companies available in this PE range
4661 50.4xIndustry Avg. 22.2xNo. of Companies18PE01632486480+
2 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: 4661 is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (50.4x) compared to the JP Hospitality industry average (22.2x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is 4661's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

4661 PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio50.4x
Fair PE Ratio38.9x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: 4661 is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (50.4x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (38.9x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst 4661 forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentJP¥3,380.00
JP¥4,550.91
+34.6%
18.1%JP¥6,500.00JP¥3,000.00n/a13
Dec ’25JP¥3,538.00
JP¥4,550.91
+28.6%
18.1%JP¥6,500.00JP¥3,000.00n/a13
Nov ’25JP¥3,742.00
JP¥4,604.75
+23.1%
17.6%JP¥6,500.00JP¥3,000.00n/a13
Oct ’25JP¥3,707.00
JP¥4,980.34
+34.3%
16.9%JP¥6,500.00JP¥3,050.00n/a14
Sep ’25JP¥3,988.00
JP¥5,033.91
+26.2%
15.7%JP¥6,500.00JP¥3,300.00n/a14
Aug ’25JP¥4,104.00
JP¥5,183.91
+26.3%
14.8%JP¥6,500.00JP¥3,300.00n/a14
Jul ’25JP¥4,487.00
JP¥5,296.33
+18.0%
13.9%JP¥6,500.00JP¥3,300.00n/a13
Jun ’25JP¥4,387.00
JP¥5,360.88
+22.2%
14.6%JP¥6,500.00JP¥3,100.00n/a14
May ’25JP¥4,383.00
JP¥5,368.03
+22.5%
14.4%JP¥6,300.00JP¥3,100.00n/a14
Apr ’25JP¥4,879.00
JP¥5,604.15
+14.9%
16.1%JP¥6,400.00JP¥2,720.00n/a14
Mar ’25JP¥5,389.00
JP¥5,604.15
+4.0%
16.1%JP¥6,400.00JP¥2,720.00n/a14
Feb ’25JP¥5,500.00
JP¥5,550.62
+0.9%
17.2%JP¥6,600.00JP¥2,720.00n/a13
Jan ’25JP¥5,251.00
JP¥5,327.50
+1.5%
17.3%JP¥6,600.00JP¥2,720.00n/a12
Dec ’24JP¥5,074.00
JP¥5,363.85
+5.7%
16.7%JP¥6,600.00JP¥2,720.00JP¥3,538.0013
Nov ’24JP¥5,062.00
JP¥5,385.38
+6.4%
17.6%JP¥6,600.00JP¥2,550.00JP¥3,742.0013
Oct ’24JP¥4,909.00
JP¥5,435.38
+10.7%
18.4%JP¥6,600.00JP¥2,550.00JP¥3,707.0013
Sep ’24JP¥5,255.00
JP¥5,455.00
+3.8%
19.1%JP¥6,600.00JP¥2,550.00JP¥3,988.0012
Aug ’24JP¥5,405.00
JP¥5,340.00
-1.2%
20.3%JP¥6,540.00JP¥2,400.00JP¥4,104.0011
Jul ’24JP¥5,601.00
JP¥5,159.09
-7.9%
20.0%JP¥6,100.00JP¥2,400.00JP¥4,487.0011
Jun ’24JP¥5,213.00
JP¥4,985.83
-4.4%
20.8%JP¥6,100.00JP¥2,400.00JP¥4,387.0012
May ’24JP¥4,890.00
JP¥4,744.17
-3.0%
19.2%JP¥5,900.00JP¥2,480.00JP¥4,383.0012
Apr ’24JP¥4,528.00
JP¥4,653.00
+2.8%
18.9%JP¥5,480.00JP¥2,480.00JP¥4,879.0010
Mar ’24JP¥4,340.00
JP¥4,610.91
+6.2%
18.0%JP¥5,480.00JP¥2,480.00JP¥5,389.0011
Feb ’24JP¥4,312.00
JP¥4,325.45
+0.3%
17.2%JP¥5,200.00JP¥2,500.00JP¥5,500.0011
Jan ’24JP¥3,832.00
JP¥4,234.55
+10.5%
19.0%JP¥5,200.00JP¥2,500.00JP¥5,251.0011
Dec ’23JP¥3,940.00
JP¥4,234.55
+7.5%
19.0%JP¥5,200.00JP¥2,500.00JP¥5,074.0011

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price, but analysts are not within a statistically confident range of agreement.

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2024/12/21 13:38
End of Day Share Price 2024/12/20 00:00
Earnings2024/09/30
Annual Earnings2024/03/31

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on .

Analyst Sources

Oriental Land Co., Ltd. is covered by 37 analysts. 17 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
Yuki OkishioBarclays
James MoonBNP Paribas Securities (Asia)
Yoshitaka NagaoBofA Global Research