Oriental Land Co., Ltd.

TSE:4661 Stock Report

Market Cap: JP¥5.6t

Oriental Land Valuation

Is 4661 undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

0/6

Valuation Score 0/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of 4661 when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: 4661 (¥3403) is trading above our estimate of fair value (¥1648.32)

Significantly Below Fair Value: 4661 is trading above our estimate of fair value.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for 4661?

Key metric: As 4661 is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for 4661. This is calculated by dividing 4661's market cap by their current earnings.
What is 4661's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio50.7x
EarningsJP¥111.20b
Market CapJP¥5.64t

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does 4661's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for 4661 vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average24.7x
4680 Round One
16.4x10.3%JP¥272.0b
6412 Heiwa
10.6xn/aJP¥208.4b
2157 Koshidaka Holdings
13.8x13.9%JP¥92.7b
9166 GENDA
58x20.9%JP¥209.4b
4661 Oriental Land
50.7x9.5%JP¥5.6t

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: 4661 is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (50.7x) compared to the peer average (24.7x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does 4661's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the JP Hospitality Industry?

2 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
7625 Global-Dining
3.8xn/aUS$24.06m
5534 Angel Group
2.9xn/aUS$22.19m
No more companies available in this PE range
4661 50.7xIndustry Avg. 21.5xNo. of Companies18PE01632486480+
2 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: 4661 is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (50.7x) compared to the JP Hospitality industry average (21.5x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is 4661's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

4661 PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio50.7x
Fair PE Ratio39x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: 4661 is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (50.7x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (39x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst 4661 forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentJP¥3,403.00
JP¥4,550.91
+33.7%
18.1%JP¥6,500.00JP¥3,000.00n/a13
Nov ’25JP¥3,742.00
JP¥4,604.75
+23.1%
17.6%JP¥6,500.00JP¥3,000.00n/a13
Oct ’25JP¥3,707.00
JP¥4,980.34
+34.3%
16.9%JP¥6,500.00JP¥3,050.00n/a14
Sep ’25JP¥3,988.00
JP¥5,033.91
+26.2%
15.7%JP¥6,500.00JP¥3,300.00n/a14
Aug ’25JP¥4,104.00
JP¥5,183.91
+26.3%
14.8%JP¥6,500.00JP¥3,300.00n/a14
Jul ’25JP¥4,487.00
JP¥5,296.33
+18.0%
13.9%JP¥6,500.00JP¥3,300.00n/a13
Jun ’25JP¥4,387.00
JP¥5,360.88
+22.2%
14.6%JP¥6,500.00JP¥3,100.00n/a14
May ’25JP¥4,383.00
JP¥5,368.03
+22.5%
14.4%JP¥6,300.00JP¥3,100.00n/a14
Apr ’25JP¥4,879.00
JP¥5,604.15
+14.9%
16.1%JP¥6,400.00JP¥2,720.00n/a14
Mar ’25JP¥5,389.00
JP¥5,604.15
+4.0%
16.1%JP¥6,400.00JP¥2,720.00n/a14
Feb ’25JP¥5,500.00
JP¥5,550.62
+0.9%
17.2%JP¥6,600.00JP¥2,720.00n/a13
Jan ’25JP¥5,251.00
JP¥5,327.50
+1.5%
17.3%JP¥6,600.00JP¥2,720.00n/a12
Dec ’24JP¥5,074.00
JP¥5,363.85
+5.7%
16.7%JP¥6,600.00JP¥2,720.00n/a13
Nov ’24JP¥5,062.00
JP¥5,385.38
+6.4%
17.6%JP¥6,600.00JP¥2,550.00JP¥3,742.0013
Oct ’24JP¥4,909.00
JP¥5,435.38
+10.7%
18.4%JP¥6,600.00JP¥2,550.00JP¥3,707.0013
Sep ’24JP¥5,255.00
JP¥5,455.00
+3.8%
19.1%JP¥6,600.00JP¥2,550.00JP¥3,988.0012
Aug ’24JP¥5,405.00
JP¥5,340.00
-1.2%
20.3%JP¥6,540.00JP¥2,400.00JP¥4,104.0011
Jul ’24JP¥5,601.00
JP¥5,159.09
-7.9%
20.0%JP¥6,100.00JP¥2,400.00JP¥4,487.0011
Jun ’24JP¥5,213.00
JP¥4,985.83
-4.4%
20.8%JP¥6,100.00JP¥2,400.00JP¥4,387.0012
May ’24JP¥4,890.00
JP¥4,744.17
-3.0%
19.2%JP¥5,900.00JP¥2,480.00JP¥4,383.0012
Apr ’24JP¥4,528.00
JP¥4,653.00
+2.8%
18.9%JP¥5,480.00JP¥2,480.00JP¥4,879.0010
Mar ’24JP¥4,340.00
JP¥4,610.91
+6.2%
18.0%JP¥5,480.00JP¥2,480.00JP¥5,389.0011
Feb ’24JP¥4,312.00
JP¥4,325.45
+0.3%
17.2%JP¥5,200.00JP¥2,500.00JP¥5,500.0011
Jan ’24JP¥3,832.00
JP¥4,234.55
+10.5%
19.0%JP¥5,200.00JP¥2,500.00JP¥5,251.0011
Dec ’23JP¥3,940.00
JP¥4,234.55
+7.5%
19.0%JP¥5,200.00JP¥2,500.00JP¥5,074.0011
Nov ’23JP¥4,028.00
JP¥4,178.18
+3.7%
21.1%JP¥5,200.00JP¥2,220.00JP¥5,062.0011

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price, but analysts are not within a statistically confident range of agreement.

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