Seven & i Holdings Co., Ltd. Earnings Missed Analyst Estimates: Here's What Analysts Are Forecasting Now

Seven & i Holdings Co., Ltd. (TSE:3382) shareholders are probably feeling a little disappointed, since its shares fell 8.1% to JP¥1,814 in the week after its latest first-quarter results. Statutory earnings per share fell badly short of expectations, coming in at JP¥8.20, some 55% below analyst forecasts, although revenues were okay, approximately in line with analyst estimates at JP¥2.7t. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.

See our latest analysis for Seven & i Holdings

Taking into account the latest results, Seven & i Holdings' 15 analysts currently expect revenues in 2025 to be JP¥12t, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to soar 42% to JP¥112. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of JP¥12t and earnings per share (EPS) of JP¥114 in 2025. So it's pretty clear that, although the analysts have updated their estimates, there's been no major change in expectations for the business following the latest results.

It will come as no surprise then, to learn that the consensus price target is largely unchanged at JP¥2,398. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Seven & i Holdings at JP¥2,850 per share, while the most bearish prices it at JP¥1,910. There are definitely some different views on the stock, but the range of estimates is not wide enough as to imply that the situation is unforecastable, in our view.

Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. These estimates imply that revenue is expected to slow, with a forecast annualised decline of 0.3% by the end of 2025. This indicates a significant reduction from annual growth of 16% over the last five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in the same industry are forecast to see their revenue grow 3.4% annually for the foreseeable future. It's pretty clear that Seven & i Holdings' revenues are expected to perform substantially worse than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most obvious conclusion is that there's been no major change in the business' prospects in recent times, with the analysts holding their earnings forecasts steady, in line with previous estimates. Fortunately, the analysts also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Although our data does suggest that Seven & i Holdings' revenue is expected to perform worse than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at JP¥2,398, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Seven & i Holdings. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Seven & i Holdings going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here..

However, before you get too enthused, we've discovered 2 warning signs for Seven & i Holdings (1 shouldn't be ignored!) that you should be aware of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com