MISUMI Group (TSE:9962) shareholders have endured a 47% loss from investing in the stock three years ago

For many investors, the main point of stock picking is to generate higher returns than the overall market. But if you try your hand at stock picking, you risk returning less than the market. We regret to report that long term MISUMI Group Inc. (TSE:9962) shareholders have had that experience, with the share price dropping 49% in three years, versus a market return of about 40%.

Since shareholders are down over the longer term, lets look at the underlying fundamentals over the that time and see if they've been consistent with returns.

See our latest analysis for MISUMI Group

To paraphrase Benjamin Graham: Over the short term the market is a voting machine, but over the long term it's a weighing machine. One flawed but reasonable way to assess how sentiment around a company has changed is to compare the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price.

Although the share price is down over three years, MISUMI Group actually managed to grow EPS by 2.0% per year in that time. Given the share price reaction, one might suspect that EPS is not a good guide to the business performance during the period (perhaps due to a one-off loss or gain). Or else the company was over-hyped in the past, and so its growth has disappointed.

It's pretty reasonable to suspect the market was previously to bullish on the stock, and has since moderated expectations. Looking to other metrics might better explain the share price change.

With a rather small yield of just 1.7% we doubt that the stock's share price is based on its dividend. The company has kept revenue pretty healthy over the last three years, so we doubt that explains the falling share price. There doesn't seem to be any clear correlation between the fundamental business metrics and the share price. That could mean that the stock was previously overrated, or it could spell opportunity now.

You can see how earnings and revenue have changed over time in the image below (click on the chart to see the exact values).

We know that MISUMI Group has improved its bottom line lately, but what does the future have in store? If you are thinking of buying or selling MISUMI Group stock, you should check out this free report showing analyst profit forecasts.

A Different Perspective

MISUMI Group shareholders are up 12% for the year (even including dividends). But that return falls short of the market. On the bright side, that's still a gain, and it is certainly better than the yearly loss of about 1.5% endured over half a decade. So this might be a sign the business has turned its fortunes around. Before deciding if you like the current share price, check how MISUMI Group scores on these 3 valuation metrics.

We will like MISUMI Group better if we see some big insider buys. While we wait, check out this free list of undervalued stocks (mostly small caps) with considerable, recent, insider buying.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on Japanese exchanges.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.