Earnings Release: Here's Why Analysts Cut Their Toyota Tsusho Corporation (TSE:8015) Price Target To JP¥3,026

Shareholders of Toyota Tsusho Corporation (TSE:8015) will be pleased this week, given that the stock price is up 14% to JP¥2,944 following its latest full-year results. Results look mixed - while revenue fell marginally short of analyst estimates at JP¥10t, statutory earnings were in line with expectations, at JP¥343 per share. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.

Our free stock report includes 1 warning sign investors should be aware of before investing in Toyota Tsusho. Read for free now.

Taking into account the latest results, the most recent consensus for Toyota Tsusho from five analysts is for revenues of JP¥11t in 2026. If met, it would imply a modest 4.7% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are forecast to decrease 2.8% to JP¥334 in the same period. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of JP¥11t and earnings per share (EPS) of JP¥346 in 2026. The analysts seem to have become a little more negative on the business after the latest results, given the minor downgrade to their earnings per share numbers for next year.

Check out our latest analysis for Toyota Tsusho

The average price target fell 5.2% to JP¥3,026, with reduced earnings forecasts clearly tied to a lower valuation estimate. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. There are some variant perceptions on Toyota Tsusho, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at JP¥4,270 and the most bearish at JP¥2,480 per share. These price targets show that analysts do have some differing views on the business, but the estimates do not vary enough to suggest to us that some are betting on wild success or utter failure.

Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that Toyota Tsusho's revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2026 expected to display 4.7% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 12% over the past five years. By way of comparison, the other companies in this industry with analyst coverage are forecast to grow their revenue at 2.4% annually. Even after the forecast slowdown in growth, it seems obvious that Toyota Tsusho is also expected to grow faster than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts downgraded their earnings per share estimates, showing that there has been a clear decline in sentiment following these results. Happily, there were no major changes to revenue forecasts, with the business still expected to grow faster than the wider industry. Furthermore, the analysts also cut their price targets, suggesting that the latest news has led to greater pessimism about the intrinsic value of the business.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Toyota Tsusho going out to 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here..

We don't want to rain on the parade too much, but we did also find 1 warning sign for Toyota Tsusho that you need to be mindful of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.