Toyota Tsusho Corporation

TSE:8015 Stock Report

Market Cap: JP¥2.8t

Toyota Tsusho Valuation

Is 8015 undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

3/6

Valuation Score 3/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of 8015 when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: 8015 (¥2654) is trading above our estimate of fair value (¥1323.47)

Significantly Below Fair Value: 8015 is trading above our estimate of fair value.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for 8015?

Key metric: As 8015 is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for 8015. This is calculated by dividing 8015's market cap by their current earnings.
What is 8015's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio8.4x
EarningsJP¥335.23b
Market CapJP¥2.80t

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does 8015's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for 8015 vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average20.7x
8053 Sumitomo
11.2x10.2%JP¥4.0t
8002 Marubeni
8.6x3.7%JP¥3.9t
3064 MonotaRO
53.4x15.7%JP¥1.3t
8031 Mitsui
9.5x-3.4%JP¥9.7t
8015 Toyota Tsusho
8.4x4.5%JP¥2.8t

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: 8015 is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (8.4x) compared to the peer average (20.7x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does 8015's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the JP Trade Distributors Industry?

0 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies available in this PE range
8015 8.4xIndustry Avg. 9.6xNo. of Companies19PE0612182430+
0 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: 8015 is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (8.4x) compared to the JP Trade Distributors industry average (9.6x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is 8015's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

8015 PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio8.4x
Fair PE Ratio17.8x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: 8015 is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (8.4x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (17.8x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst 8015 forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentJP¥2,654.00
JP¥3,236.67
+22.0%
19.7%JP¥4,400.00JP¥2,500.00n/a6
Nov ’25JP¥2,560.50
JP¥3,236.67
+26.4%
19.7%JP¥4,400.00JP¥2,500.00n/a6
Oct ’25JP¥2,654.50
JP¥3,302.86
+24.4%
18.5%JP¥4,400.00JP¥2,500.00n/a7
Sep ’25JP¥2,792.50
JP¥3,637.57
+30.3%
9.5%JP¥4,400.00JP¥3,300.00n/a7
Aug ’25JP¥2,717.00
JP¥3,705.71
+36.4%
10.4%JP¥4,300.00JP¥3,300.00n/a7
Jul ’25JP¥3,177.00
JP¥3,691.38
+16.2%
10.5%JP¥4,300.00JP¥3,300.00n/a7
Jun ’25JP¥3,179.67
JP¥3,712.86
+16.8%
10.1%JP¥4,300.00JP¥3,300.00n/a7
May ’25JP¥3,262.67
JP¥3,666.67
+12.4%
9.0%JP¥4,300.00JP¥3,300.00n/a7
Apr ’25JP¥3,281.00
JP¥3,523.81
+7.4%
6.8%JP¥4,000.00JP¥3,233.33n/a7
Mar ’25JP¥3,253.00
JP¥3,387.62
+4.1%
9.3%JP¥4,000.00JP¥2,980.00n/a7
Feb ’25JP¥3,216.67
JP¥3,255.24
+1.2%
10.4%JP¥3,706.67JP¥2,666.67n/a7
Jan ’25JP¥2,769.33
JP¥3,083.81
+11.4%
12.2%JP¥3,706.67JP¥2,500.00n/a7
Dec ’24JP¥2,744.33
JP¥3,117.62
+13.6%
10.9%JP¥3,706.67JP¥2,500.00n/a7
Nov ’24JP¥2,812.00
JP¥3,056.67
+8.7%
9.0%JP¥3,480.00JP¥2,500.00JP¥2,560.507
Oct ’24JP¥2,931.67
JP¥3,051.90
+4.1%
9.0%JP¥3,480.00JP¥2,500.00JP¥2,654.507
Sep ’24JP¥2,928.00
JP¥2,830.48
-3.3%
16.5%JP¥3,480.00JP¥2,200.00JP¥2,792.507
Aug ’24JP¥2,875.00
JP¥2,539.52
-11.7%
11.4%JP¥3,066.67JP¥2,200.00JP¥2,717.007
Jul ’24JP¥2,379.67
JP¥2,439.52
+2.5%
12.3%JP¥2,866.67JP¥2,000.00JP¥3,177.007
Jun ’24JP¥2,083.33
JP¥2,310.48
+10.9%
13.0%JP¥2,843.33JP¥2,000.00JP¥3,179.677
May ’24JP¥1,920.00
JP¥2,251.90
+17.3%
10.1%JP¥2,566.67JP¥2,000.00JP¥3,262.677
Apr ’24JP¥1,873.33
JP¥2,209.05
+17.9%
9.5%JP¥2,566.67JP¥2,000.00JP¥3,281.007
Mar ’24JP¥1,883.33
JP¥2,103.81
+11.7%
10.6%JP¥2,566.67JP¥1,833.33JP¥3,253.007
Feb ’24JP¥1,840.00
JP¥2,020.48
+9.8%
10.2%JP¥2,416.67JP¥1,766.67JP¥3,216.677
Jan ’24JP¥1,628.33
JP¥2,020.48
+24.1%
10.2%JP¥2,416.67JP¥1,766.67JP¥2,769.337
Dec ’23JP¥1,760.00
JP¥1,976.19
+12.3%
12.6%JP¥2,416.67JP¥1,600.00JP¥2,744.337
Nov ’23JP¥1,673.33
JP¥1,976.67
+18.1%
12.7%JP¥2,420.00JP¥1,600.00JP¥2,812.007

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price, but analysts are not within a statistically confident range of agreement.

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