Marubeni Corporation Recorded A 9.3% Miss On Revenue: Analysts Are Revisiting Their Models

Investors in Marubeni Corporation (TSE:8002) had a good week, as its shares rose 7.2% to close at JP¥2,901 following the release of its full-year results. Revenues came in 9.3% below expectations, at JP¥7.3t. Statutory earnings per share were relatively better off, with a per-share profit of JP¥280 being roughly in line with analyst estimates. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.

Check out our latest analysis for Marubeni

After the latest results, the eight analysts covering Marubeni are now predicting revenues of JP¥7.69t in 2025. If met, this would reflect a modest 6.1% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to increase 2.5% to JP¥288. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of JP¥7.98t and earnings per share (EPS) of JP¥285 in 2025. So it looks like the analysts have become a bit less optimistic after the latest results announcement, with revenues expected to fall even as the company is supposed to maintain EPS.

The average price target was steady at JP¥2,863even though revenue estimates declined; likely suggesting the analysts place a higher value on earnings. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Marubeni at JP¥3,160 per share, while the most bearish prices it at JP¥2,520. Even so, with a relatively close grouping of estimates, it looks like the analysts are quite confident in their valuations, suggesting Marubeni is an easy business to forecast or the the analysts are all using similar assumptions.

These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the Marubeni's past performance and to peers in the same industry. It's clear from the latest estimates that Marubeni's rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with the forecast 6.1% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2025 noticeably faster than its historical growth of 4.9% p.a. over the past five years. Compare this with other companies in the same industry, which are forecast to grow their revenue 0.2% annually. Factoring in the forecast acceleration in revenue, it's pretty clear that Marubeni is expected to grow much faster than its industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that there's been no major change in sentiment, with the analysts reconfirming that the business is performing in line with their previous earnings per share estimates. They also downgraded Marubeni's revenue estimates, but industry data suggests that it is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. Even so, long term profitability is more important for the value creation process. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Marubeni going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here..

However, before you get too enthused, we've discovered 2 warning signs for Marubeni (1 is a bit concerning!) that you should be aware of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.