NEPON Inc.'s (TSE:7985) Shareholders Might Be Looking For Exit

It's not a stretch to say that NEPON Inc.'s (TSE:7985) price-to-sales (or "P/S") ratio of 0.2x right now seems quite "middle-of-the-road" for companies in the Machinery industry in Japan, where the median P/S ratio is around 0.6x. While this might not raise any eyebrows, if the P/S ratio is not justified investors could be missing out on a potential opportunity or ignoring looming disappointment.

Check out our latest analysis for NEPON

How NEPON Has Been Performing

As an illustration, revenue has deteriorated at NEPON over the last year, which is not ideal at all. Perhaps investors believe the recent revenue performance is enough to keep in line with the industry, which is keeping the P/S from dropping off. If not, then existing shareholders may be a little nervous about the viability of the share price.

We don't have analyst forecasts, but you can see how recent trends are setting up the company for the future by checking out our free report on NEPON's earnings, revenue and cash flow.

What Are Revenue Growth Metrics Telling Us About The P/S?

In order to justify its P/S ratio, NEPON would need to produce growth that's similar to the industry.

Taking a look back first, the company's revenue growth last year wasn't something to get excited about as it posted a disappointing decline of 2.7%. That put a dampener on the good run it was having over the longer-term as its three-year revenue growth is still a noteworthy 7.1% in total. Accordingly, while they would have preferred to keep the run going, shareholders would be roughly satisfied with the medium-term rates of revenue growth.

Comparing the recent medium-term revenue trends against the industry's one-year growth forecast of 5.5% shows it's noticeably less attractive.

With this in mind, we find it intriguing that NEPON's P/S is comparable to that of its industry peers. It seems most investors are ignoring the fairly limited recent growth rates and are willing to pay up for exposure to the stock. They may be setting themselves up for future disappointment if the P/S falls to levels more in line with recent growth rates.

The Final Word

It's argued the price-to-sales ratio is an inferior measure of value within certain industries, but it can be a powerful business sentiment indicator.

Our examination of NEPON revealed its poor three-year revenue trends aren't resulting in a lower P/S as per our expectations, given they look worse than current industry outlook. When we see weak revenue with slower than industry growth, we suspect the share price is at risk of declining, bringing the P/S back in line with expectations. If recent medium-term revenue trends continue, the probability of a share price decline will become quite substantial, placing shareholders at risk.

It's always necessary to consider the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 4 warning signs with NEPON (at least 1 which is concerning), and understanding these should be part of your investment process.

It's important to make sure you look for a great company, not just the first idea you come across. So if growing profitability aligns with your idea of a great company, take a peek at this free list of interesting companies with strong recent earnings growth (and a low P/E).

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com