Further weakness as Noda (TSE:7879) drops 11% this week, taking three-year losses to 43%

Many investors define successful investing as beating the market average over the long term. But if you try your hand at stock picking, you risk returning less than the market. We regret to report that long term Noda Corporation (TSE:7879) shareholders have had that experience, with the share price dropping 50% in three years, versus a market return of about 37%. The more recent news is of little comfort, with the share price down 46% in a year. Furthermore, it's down 13% in about a quarter. That's not much fun for holders. But this could be related to the weak market, which is down 10% in the same period.

After losing 11% this past week, it's worth investigating the company's fundamentals to see what we can infer from past performance.

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In his essay The Superinvestors of Graham-and-Doddsville Warren Buffett described how share prices do not always rationally reflect the value of a business. One flawed but reasonable way to assess how sentiment around a company has changed is to compare the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price.

Noda saw its share price decline over the three years in which its EPS also dropped, falling to a loss. This was, in part, due to extraordinary items impacting earnings. Due to the loss, it's not easy to use EPS as a reliable guide to the business. But it's safe to say we'd generally expect the share price to be lower as a result!

You can see below how EPS has changed over time (discover the exact values by clicking on the image).

It might be well worthwhile taking a look at our free report on Noda's earnings, revenue and cash flow .

What About Dividends?

As well as measuring the share price return, investors should also consider the total shareholder return (TSR). Whereas the share price return only reflects the change in the share price, the TSR includes the value of dividends (assuming they were reinvested) and the benefit of any discounted capital raising or spin-off. It's fair to say that the TSR gives a more complete picture for stocks that pay a dividend. In the case of Noda, it has a TSR of -43% for the last 3 years. That exceeds its share price return that we previously mentioned. And there's no prize for guessing that the dividend payments largely explain the divergence!

A Different Perspective

We regret to report that Noda shareholders are down 44% for the year (even including dividends). Unfortunately, that's worse than the broader market decline of 5.9%. However, it could simply be that the share price has been impacted by broader market jitters. It might be worth keeping an eye on the fundamentals, in case there's a good opportunity. Longer term investors wouldn't be so upset, since they would have made 5%, each year, over five years. It could be that the recent sell-off is an opportunity, so it may be worth checking the fundamental data for signs of a long term growth trend. It's always interesting to track share price performance over the longer term. But to understand Noda better, we need to consider many other factors. For example, we've discovered 3 warning signs for Noda (1 is significant!) that you should be aware of before investing here.

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Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on Japanese exchanges.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.