Hoshizaki Corporation Just Missed Earnings - But Analysts Have Updated Their Models

Last week, you might have seen that Hoshizaki Corporation (TSE:6465) released its quarterly result to the market. The early response was not positive, with shares down 6.3% to JP¥5,512 in the past week. It was not a great result overall. Although revenues beat expectations, hitting JP¥118b, statutory earnings missed analyst forecasts by 10%, coming in at just JP¥76.59 per share. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. So we gathered the latest post-earnings forecasts to see what estimates suggest is in store for next year.

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Following last week's earnings report, Hoshizaki's eleven analysts are forecasting 2025 revenues to be JP¥458.9b, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Statutory per share are forecast to be JP¥278, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of JP¥455.7b and earnings per share (EPS) of JP¥276 in 2025. The consensus analysts don't seem to have seen anything in these results that would have changed their view on the business, given there's been no major change to their estimates.

Check out our latest analysis for Hoshizaki

There were no changes to revenue or earnings estimates or the price target of JP¥6,765, suggesting that the company has met expectations in its recent result. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. The most optimistic Hoshizaki analyst has a price target of JP¥8,000 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at JP¥5,700. Analysts definitely have varying views on the business, but the spread of estimates is not wide enough in our view to suggest that extreme outcomes could await Hoshizaki shareholders.

Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that Hoshizaki's revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2025 expected to display 0.5% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 13% over the past five years. By way of comparison, the other companies in this industry with analyst coverage are forecast to grow their revenue at 4.4% per year. Factoring in the forecast slowdown in growth, it seems obvious that Hoshizaki is also expected to grow slower than other industry participants.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that there's been no major change in sentiment, with the analysts reconfirming that the business is performing in line with their previous earnings per share estimates. On the plus side, there were no major changes to revenue estimates; although forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have forecasts for Hoshizaki going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

We also provide an overview of the Hoshizaki Board and CEO remuneration and length of tenure at the company, and whether insiders have been buying the stock, here.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.