Optimistic Investors Push Iwabuchi Corporation (TSE:5983) Shares Up 27% But Growth Is Lacking

Iwabuchi Corporation (TSE:5983) shares have continued their recent momentum with a 27% gain in the last month alone. The last 30 days bring the annual gain to a very sharp 70%.

Since its price has surged higher, given close to half the companies in Japan have price-to-earnings ratios (or "P/E's") below 14x, you may consider Iwabuchi as a stock to avoid entirely with its 21.8x P/E ratio. However, the P/E might be quite high for a reason and it requires further investigation to determine if it's justified.

For instance, Iwabuchi's receding earnings in recent times would have to be some food for thought. It might be that many expect the company to still outplay most other companies over the coming period, which has kept the P/E from collapsing. You'd really hope so, otherwise you're paying a pretty hefty price for no particular reason.

See our latest analysis for Iwabuchi

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How Is Iwabuchi's Growth Trending?

Iwabuchi's P/E ratio would be typical for a company that's expected to deliver very strong growth, and importantly, perform much better than the market.

Taking a look back first, the company's earnings per share growth last year wasn't something to get excited about as it posted a disappointing decline of 69%. The last three years don't look nice either as the company has shrunk EPS by 1.2% in aggregate. So unfortunately, we have to acknowledge that the company has not done a great job of growing earnings over that time.

Weighing that medium-term earnings trajectory against the broader market's one-year forecast for expansion of 11% shows it's an unpleasant look.

In light of this, it's alarming that Iwabuchi's P/E sits above the majority of other companies. Apparently many investors in the company are way more bullish than recent times would indicate and aren't willing to let go of their stock at any price. There's a very good chance existing shareholders are setting themselves up for future disappointment if the P/E falls to levels more in line with the recent negative growth rates.

The Key Takeaway

Iwabuchi's P/E is flying high just like its stock has during the last month. Typically, we'd caution against reading too much into price-to-earnings ratios when settling on investment decisions, though it can reveal plenty about what other market participants think about the company.

Our examination of Iwabuchi revealed its shrinking earnings over the medium-term aren't impacting its high P/E anywhere near as much as we would have predicted, given the market is set to grow. When we see earnings heading backwards and underperforming the market forecasts, we suspect the share price is at risk of declining, sending the high P/E lower. Unless the recent medium-term conditions improve markedly, it's very challenging to accept these prices as being reasonable.

You always need to take note of risks, for example - Iwabuchi has 3 warning signs we think you should be aware of.

If you're unsure about the strength of Iwabuchi's business, why not explore our interactive list of stocks with solid business fundamentals for some other companies you may have missed.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.