Optimism for Sumiken Mitsui RoadLtd (TSE:1776) has grown this past week, despite five-year decline in earnings

When you buy and hold a stock for the long term, you definitely want it to provide a positive return. Furthermore, you'd generally like to see the share price rise faster than the market. But Sumiken Mitsui Road Co.,Ltd. (TSE:1776) has fallen short of that second goal, with a share price rise of 36% over five years, which is below the market return. Zooming in, the stock is up a respectable 12% in the last year.

Since the stock has added JP¥1.1b to its market cap in the past week alone, let's see if underlying performance has been driving long-term returns.

See our latest analysis for Sumiken Mitsui RoadLtd

In his essay The Superinvestors of Graham-and-Doddsville Warren Buffett described how share prices do not always rationally reflect the value of a business. One imperfect but simple way to consider how the market perception of a company has shifted is to compare the change in the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price movement.

During five years of share price growth, Sumiken Mitsui RoadLtd actually saw its EPS drop 20% per year.

Essentially, it doesn't seem likely that investors are focused on EPS. Since the change in EPS doesn't seem to correlate with the change in share price, it's worth taking a look at other metrics.

The revenue reduction of 2.1% per year is not a positive. It certainly surprises us that the share price is up, but perhaps a closer examination of the data will yield answers.

You can see below how earnings and revenue have changed over time (discover the exact values by clicking on the image).

This free interactive report on Sumiken Mitsui RoadLtd's balance sheet strength is a great place to start, if you want to investigate the stock further.

What About Dividends?

It is important to consider the total shareholder return, as well as the share price return, for any given stock. The TSR incorporates the value of any spin-offs or discounted capital raisings, along with any dividends, based on the assumption that the dividends are reinvested. So for companies that pay a generous dividend, the TSR is often a lot higher than the share price return. In the case of Sumiken Mitsui RoadLtd, it has a TSR of 60% for the last 5 years. That exceeds its share price return that we previously mentioned. The dividends paid by the company have thusly boosted the total shareholder return.

A Different Perspective

It's good to see that Sumiken Mitsui RoadLtd has rewarded shareholders with a total shareholder return of 15% in the last twelve months. And that does include the dividend. That gain is better than the annual TSR over five years, which is 10%. Therefore it seems like sentiment around the company has been positive lately. In the best case scenario, this may hint at some real business momentum, implying that now could be a great time to delve deeper. I find it very interesting to look at share price over the long term as a proxy for business performance. But to truly gain insight, we need to consider other information, too. Consider for instance, the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 5 warning signs with Sumiken Mitsui RoadLtd (at least 3 which don't sit too well with us) , and understanding them should be part of your investment process.

We will like Sumiken Mitsui RoadLtd better if we see some big insider buys. While we wait, check out this free list of undervalued stocks (mostly small caps) with considerable, recent, insider buying.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on Japanese exchanges.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.