Aozora Bank, Ltd.

TSE:8304 Stock Report

Market Cap: JP¥341.0b

Aozora Bank Valuation

Is 8304 undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

3/6

Valuation Score 3/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Book vs Peers

  • Price-To-Book vs Industry

  • Price-To-Book vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of 8304 when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: 8304 (¥2424.5) is trading below our estimate of fair value (¥3403.75)

Significantly Below Fair Value: 8304 is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for 8304?

Key metric: As 8304 is an unprofitable bank we use its Price-To-Book Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Book ratio for 8304. This is calculated by dividing 8304's market cap by their current book value.
What is 8304's PB Ratio?
PB Ratio0.7x
BookJP¥452.06b
Market CapJP¥340.97b

Price to Book Ratio vs Peers

How does 8304's PB Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PB ratio for 8304 vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PBEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average1.7x
7163 SBI Sumishin Net Bank
2.8x25.7%JP¥459.1b
5838 Rakuten Bank
2.5x15.5%JP¥712.6b
8309 Sumitomo Mitsui Trust Group
0.8x12.0%JP¥2.7t
7182 JAPAN POST BANK
0.5x5.3%JP¥5.2t
8304 Aozora Bank
0.7x75.3%JP¥341.0b

Price-To-Book vs Peers: 8304 is good value based on its Price-To-Book Ratio (0.7x) compared to the peer average (1.7x).

Price to Book Ratio vs Industry

How does 8304's PB Ratio compare vs other companies in the JP Banks Industry?

2 CompaniesPrice / BookEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
7161 Jimoto Holdings
0.1xn/aUS$53.02m
8560 Miyazaki Taiyo Bank
0.1xn/aUS$42.09m
No more companies available in this PB range
8304 0.7xIndustry Avg. 0.3xNo. of Companies29PB00.61.21.82.43+
2 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Book vs Industry: 8304 is expensive based on its Price-To-Book Ratio (0.7x) compared to the JP Banks industry average (0.3x).

Price to Book Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is 8304's PB Ratio compared to its Fair PB Ratio? This is the expected PB Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

8304 PB Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PB Ratio0.7x
Fair PB Ration/a

Price-To-Book vs Fair Ratio: Insufficient data to calculate 8304's Price-To-Book Fair Ratio for valuation analysis.

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst 8304 forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentJP¥2,424.50
JP¥2,140.00
-11.7%
15.4%JP¥2,550.00JP¥1,730.00n/a6
Nov ’25JP¥2,647.00
JP¥2,046.67
-22.7%
13.0%JP¥2,500.00JP¥1,730.00n/a6
Oct ’25JP¥2,664.00
JP¥2,046.67
-23.2%
13.0%JP¥2,500.00JP¥1,730.00n/a6
Sep ’25JP¥2,687.00
JP¥2,112.86
-21.4%
16.4%JP¥2,750.00JP¥1,670.00n/a7
Aug ’25JP¥2,493.50
JP¥2,111.43
-15.3%
16.4%JP¥2,750.00JP¥1,670.00n/a7
Jul ’25JP¥2,624.00
JP¥2,111.43
-19.5%
16.4%JP¥2,750.00JP¥1,670.00n/a7
Jun ’25JP¥2,365.50
JP¥2,064.29
-12.7%
16.7%JP¥2,750.00JP¥1,600.00n/a7
May ’25JP¥2,464.50
JP¥2,108.57
-14.4%
16.2%JP¥2,750.00JP¥1,600.00n/a7
Apr ’25JP¥2,425.00
JP¥2,118.57
-12.6%
16.6%JP¥2,750.00JP¥1,600.00n/a7
Mar ’25JP¥2,681.00
JP¥2,175.71
-18.8%
16.3%JP¥2,750.00JP¥1,600.00n/a7
Feb ’25JP¥2,557.00
JP¥2,350.00
-8.1%
11.6%JP¥2,750.00JP¥1,870.00n/a7
Jan ’25JP¥3,063.00
JP¥2,387.14
-22.1%
9.0%JP¥2,750.00JP¥2,130.00n/a7
Dec ’24JP¥3,075.00
JP¥2,380.00
-22.6%
9.0%JP¥2,750.00JP¥2,130.00n/a6
Nov ’24JP¥3,107.00
JP¥2,361.67
-24.0%
10.1%JP¥2,750.00JP¥2,020.00JP¥2,647.006
Oct ’24JP¥3,055.00
JP¥2,335.00
-23.6%
10.7%JP¥2,750.00JP¥2,020.00JP¥2,664.006
Sep ’24JP¥2,888.00
JP¥2,335.00
-19.1%
10.7%JP¥2,750.00JP¥2,020.00JP¥2,687.006
Aug ’24JP¥2,892.50
JP¥2,343.33
-19.0%
10.4%JP¥2,750.00JP¥2,020.00JP¥2,493.506
Jul ’24JP¥2,674.50
JP¥2,310.00
-13.6%
7.9%JP¥2,570.00JP¥2,020.00JP¥2,624.006
Jun ’24JP¥2,568.00
JP¥2,255.00
-12.2%
6.5%JP¥2,450.00JP¥2,020.00JP¥2,365.506
May ’24JP¥2,451.00
JP¥2,286.67
-6.7%
4.7%JP¥2,450.00JP¥2,160.00JP¥2,464.506
Apr ’24JP¥2,399.00
JP¥2,370.00
-1.2%
7.5%JP¥2,700.00JP¥2,160.00JP¥2,425.006
Mar ’24JP¥2,639.00
JP¥2,445.00
-7.4%
8.7%JP¥2,700.00JP¥2,160.00JP¥2,681.006
Feb ’24JP¥2,570.00
JP¥2,515.00
-2.1%
5.5%JP¥2,700.00JP¥2,360.00JP¥2,557.006
Jan ’24JP¥2,595.00
JP¥2,565.00
-1.2%
5.5%JP¥2,700.00JP¥2,360.00JP¥3,063.006
Dec ’23JP¥2,583.00
JP¥2,626.00
+1.7%
5.3%JP¥2,800.00JP¥2,430.00JP¥3,075.005
Nov ’23JP¥2,554.00
JP¥2,688.00
+5.2%
7.7%JP¥2,930.00JP¥2,310.00JP¥3,107.005

Analyst Forecast: Target price is lower than the current share price.

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