Aozora Bank Valuation
Is 8304 undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?
Valuation Score
3/6Valuation Score 3/6
Below Fair Value
Significantly Below Fair Value
Price-To-Book vs Peers
Price-To-Book vs Industry
Price-To-Book vs Fair Ratio
Analyst Forecast
Share Price vs Fair Value
What is the Fair Price of 8304 when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.
Below Fair Value: 8304 (¥2445) is trading below our estimate of fair value (¥3325.58)
Significantly Below Fair Value: 8304 is trading below fair value by more than 20%.
Key Valuation Metric
Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for 8304?
Key metric: As 8304 is an unprofitable bank we use its Price-To-Book Ratio for relative valuation analysis.
| What is 8304's PB Ratio? | |
|---|---|
| PB Ratio | 0.7x |
| Book | JP¥452.06b |
| Market Cap | JP¥339.73b |
| Key Statistics | |
|---|---|
| Enterprise Value/Revenue | n/a |
| Enterprise Value/EBITDA | n/a |
| PEG Ratio | n/a |
Price to Book Ratio vs Peers
How does 8304's PB Ratio compare to its peers?
| Company | Forward PB | Estimated Growth | Market Cap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Peer Average | 1.9x | ||
7163 SBI Sumishin Net Bank | 3.6x | 24.2% | JP¥576.7b |
5838 Rakuten Bank | 2.8x | 17.6% | JP¥770.9b |
8309 Sumitomo Mitsui Trust Group | 0.8x | 11.5% | JP¥2.6t |
7182 JAPAN POST BANK | 0.6x | 10.3% | JP¥5.3t |
8304 Aozora Bank | 0.7x | 72.5% | JP¥339.7b |
Price-To-Book vs Peers: 8304 is good value based on its Price-To-Book Ratio (0.7x) compared to the peer average (1.9x).
Price to Book Ratio vs Industry
How does 8304's PB Ratio compare vs other companies in the JP Banks Industry?
| 4 Companies | Price / Book | Estimated Growth | Market Cap |
|---|---|---|---|
8416 Bank Of Kochi | 0.1x | n/a | US$52.41m |
7161 Jimoto Holdings | 0.09x | n/a | US$48.27m |
8560 Miyazaki Taiyo Bank | 0.1x | n/a | US$42.82m |
8554 Minami-Nippon BankLtd | 0.1x | n/a | US$38.88m |
| 4 Companies | Estimated Growth | Market Cap |
|---|
Price-To-Book vs Industry: 8304 is expensive based on its Price-To-Book Ratio (0.7x) compared to the JP Banks industry average (0.4x).
Price to Book Ratio vs Fair Ratio
What is 8304's PB Ratio compared to its Fair PB Ratio? This is the expected PB Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.
| Fair Ratio | |
|---|---|
| Current PB Ratio | 0.7x |
| Fair PB Ratio | n/a |
Price-To-Book vs Fair Ratio: Insufficient data to calculate 8304's Price-To-Book Fair Ratio for valuation analysis.
Analyst Price Targets
What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?
| Date | Share Price | Average 1Y Price Target | Dispersion | High | Low | 1Y Actual price | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current | JP¥2,445.00 | JP¥2,201.67 -10.0% | 13.3% | JP¥2,550.00 | JP¥1,730.00 | n/a | 6 |
| Dec ’25 | JP¥2,398.00 | JP¥2,140.00 -10.8% | 15.4% | JP¥2,550.00 | JP¥1,730.00 | n/a | 6 |
| Nov ’25 | JP¥2,647.00 | JP¥2,046.67 -22.7% | 13.0% | JP¥2,500.00 | JP¥1,730.00 | n/a | 6 |
| Oct ’25 | JP¥2,664.00 | JP¥2,046.67 -23.2% | 13.0% | JP¥2,500.00 | JP¥1,730.00 | n/a | 6 |
| Sep ’25 | JP¥2,687.00 | JP¥2,112.86 -21.4% | 16.4% | JP¥2,750.00 | JP¥1,670.00 | n/a | 7 |
| Aug ’25 | JP¥2,493.50 | JP¥2,111.43 -15.3% | 16.4% | JP¥2,750.00 | JP¥1,670.00 | n/a | 7 |
| Jul ’25 | JP¥2,624.00 | JP¥2,111.43 -19.5% | 16.4% | JP¥2,750.00 | JP¥1,670.00 | n/a | 7 |
| Jun ’25 | JP¥2,365.50 | JP¥2,064.29 -12.7% | 16.7% | JP¥2,750.00 | JP¥1,600.00 | n/a | 7 |
| May ’25 | JP¥2,464.50 | JP¥2,108.57 -14.4% | 16.2% | JP¥2,750.00 | JP¥1,600.00 | n/a | 7 |
| Apr ’25 | JP¥2,425.00 | JP¥2,118.57 -12.6% | 16.6% | JP¥2,750.00 | JP¥1,600.00 | n/a | 7 |
| Mar ’25 | JP¥2,681.00 | JP¥2,175.71 -18.8% | 16.3% | JP¥2,750.00 | JP¥1,600.00 | n/a | 7 |
| Feb ’25 | JP¥2,557.00 | JP¥2,350.00 -8.1% | 11.6% | JP¥2,750.00 | JP¥1,870.00 | n/a | 7 |
| Jan ’25 | JP¥3,063.00 | JP¥2,387.14 -22.1% | 9.0% | JP¥2,750.00 | JP¥2,130.00 | n/a | 7 |
| Dec ’24 | JP¥3,075.00 | JP¥2,380.00 -22.6% | 9.0% | JP¥2,750.00 | JP¥2,130.00 | JP¥2,398.00 | 6 |
| Nov ’24 | JP¥3,107.00 | JP¥2,361.67 -24.0% | 10.1% | JP¥2,750.00 | JP¥2,020.00 | JP¥2,647.00 | 6 |
| Oct ’24 | JP¥3,055.00 | JP¥2,335.00 -23.6% | 10.7% | JP¥2,750.00 | JP¥2,020.00 | JP¥2,664.00 | 6 |
| Sep ’24 | JP¥2,888.00 | JP¥2,335.00 -19.1% | 10.7% | JP¥2,750.00 | JP¥2,020.00 | JP¥2,687.00 | 6 |
| Aug ’24 | JP¥2,892.50 | JP¥2,343.33 -19.0% | 10.4% | JP¥2,750.00 | JP¥2,020.00 | JP¥2,493.50 | 6 |
| Jul ’24 | JP¥2,674.50 | JP¥2,310.00 -13.6% | 7.9% | JP¥2,570.00 | JP¥2,020.00 | JP¥2,624.00 | 6 |
| Jun ’24 | JP¥2,568.00 | JP¥2,255.00 -12.2% | 6.5% | JP¥2,450.00 | JP¥2,020.00 | JP¥2,365.50 | 6 |
| May ’24 | JP¥2,451.00 | JP¥2,286.67 -6.7% | 4.7% | JP¥2,450.00 | JP¥2,160.00 | JP¥2,464.50 | 6 |
| Apr ’24 | JP¥2,399.00 | JP¥2,370.00 -1.2% | 7.5% | JP¥2,700.00 | JP¥2,160.00 | JP¥2,425.00 | 6 |
| Mar ’24 | JP¥2,639.00 | JP¥2,445.00 -7.4% | 8.7% | JP¥2,700.00 | JP¥2,160.00 | JP¥2,681.00 | 6 |
| Feb ’24 | JP¥2,570.00 | JP¥2,515.00 -2.1% | 5.5% | JP¥2,700.00 | JP¥2,360.00 | JP¥2,557.00 | 6 |
| Jan ’24 | JP¥2,595.00 | JP¥2,565.00 -1.2% | 5.5% | JP¥2,700.00 | JP¥2,360.00 | JP¥3,063.00 | 6 |
| Dec ’23 | JP¥2,583.00 | JP¥2,626.00 +1.7% | 5.3% | JP¥2,800.00 | JP¥2,430.00 | JP¥3,075.00 | 5 |
Analyst Forecast: Target price is lower than the current share price.
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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status
| Data | Last Updated (UTC time) |
|---|---|
| Company Analysis | 2024/12/26 09:19 |
| End of Day Share Price | 2024/12/26 00:00 |
| Earnings | 2024/09/30 |
| Annual Earnings | 2024/03/31 |
Data Sources
The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.
| Package | Data | Timeframe | Example US Source * |
|---|---|---|---|
| Company Financials | 10 years |
| |
| Analyst Consensus Estimates | +3 years |
|
|
| Market Prices | 30 years |
| |
| Ownership | 10 years |
| |
| Management | 10 years |
| |
| Key Developments | 10 years |
|
* example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.
Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.
Analysis Model and Snowflake
Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.
Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.
Industry and Sector Metrics
Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on .
Analyst Sources
Aozora Bank, Ltd. is covered by 17 analysts. 5 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.
| Analyst | Institution |
|---|---|
| null null | Barclays |
| Toyoki Sameshima | BNP Paribas Securities (Asia) |
| Shinichiro Nakamura | BofA Global Research |