Here's What Analysts Are Forecasting For Toyoda Gosei Co., Ltd. (TSE:7282) After Its Annual Results

The annual results for Toyoda Gosei Co., Ltd. (TSE:7282) were released last week, making it a good time to revisit its performance. Toyoda Gosei reported in line with analyst predictions, delivering revenues of JP¥1.1t and statutory earnings per share of JP¥400, suggesting the business is executing well and in line with its plan. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.

View our latest analysis for Toyoda Gosei

Taking into account the latest results, the consensus forecast from Toyoda Gosei's nine analysts is for revenues of JP¥1.09t in 2025. This reflects a credible 2.2% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are expected to tumble 20% to JP¥324 in the same period. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of JP¥1.09t and earnings per share (EPS) of JP¥332 in 2025. The analysts seem to have become a little more negative on the business after the latest results, given the small dip in their earnings per share numbers for next year.

The consensus price target held steady at JP¥3,697, with the analysts seemingly voting that their lower forecast earnings are not expected to lead to a lower stock price in the foreseeable future. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Toyoda Gosei at JP¥4,300 per share, while the most bearish prices it at JP¥3,200. Even so, with a relatively close grouping of estimates, it looks like the analysts are quite confident in their valuations, suggesting Toyoda Gosei is an easy business to forecast or the the analysts are all using similar assumptions.

Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. We would highlight that Toyoda Gosei's revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 2.2% annualised growth rate until the end of 2025 being well below the historical 6.0% p.a. growth over the last five years. Compare this against other companies (with analyst forecasts) in the industry, which are in aggregate expected to see revenue growth of 3.7% annually. Factoring in the forecast slowdown in growth, it seems obvious that Toyoda Gosei is also expected to grow slower than other industry participants.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts downgraded their earnings per share estimates, showing that there has been a clear decline in sentiment following these results. Fortunately, the analysts also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Although our data does suggest that Toyoda Gosei's revenue is expected to perform worse than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. We have forecasts for Toyoda Gosei going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

It is also worth noting that we have found 1 warning sign for Toyoda Gosei that you need to take into consideration.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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