Earnings Miss: Yamaha Motor Co., Ltd. Missed EPS By 15% And Analysts Are Revising Their Forecasts

Yamaha Motor Co., Ltd. (TSE:7272) last week reported its latest annual results, which makes it a good time for investors to dive in and see if the business is performing in line with expectations. It was not a great result overall. While revenues of JP¥2.6t were in line with analyst predictions, earnings were less than expected, missing statutory estimates by 15% to hit JP¥110 per share. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on Yamaha Motor after the latest results.

View our latest analysis for Yamaha Motor

Taking into account the latest results, Yamaha Motor's twelve analysts currently expect revenues in 2025 to be JP¥2.61t, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to surge 50% to JP¥166. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of JP¥2.71t and earnings per share (EPS) of JP¥183 in 2025. It's pretty clear that pessimism has reared its head after the latest results, leading to a weaker revenue outlook and a small dip in earnings per share estimates.

Despite the cuts to forecast earnings, there was no real change to the JP¥1,473 price target, showing that the analysts don't think the changes have a meaningful impact on its intrinsic value. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Yamaha Motor at JP¥1,700 per share, while the most bearish prices it at JP¥1,100. This shows there is still a bit of diversity in estimates, but analysts don't appear to be totally split on the stock as though it might be a success or failure situation.

Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. We would highlight that Yamaha Motor's revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 1.5% annualised growth rate until the end of 2025 being well below the historical 12% p.a. growth over the last five years. By way of comparison, the other companies in this industry with analyst coverage are forecast to grow their revenue at 3.1% per year. Factoring in the forecast slowdown in growth, it seems obvious that Yamaha Motor is also expected to grow slower than other industry participants.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts downgraded their earnings per share estimates, showing that there has been a clear decline in sentiment following these results. On the negative side, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, and forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at JP¥1,473, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. We have estimates - from multiple Yamaha Motor analysts - going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

However, before you get too enthused, we've discovered 3 warning signs for Yamaha Motor (1 makes us a bit uncomfortable!) that you should be aware of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.