Earnings Miss: Mitsubishi Motors Corporation Missed EPS By 32% And Analysts Are Revising Their Forecasts

Investors in Mitsubishi Motors Corporation (TSE:7211) had a good week, as its shares rose 2.5% to close at JP¥408 following the release of its full-year results. Statutory earnings per share fell badly short of expectations, coming in at JP¥28.70, some 32% below analyst forecasts, although revenues were okay, approximately in line with analyst estimates at JP¥2.8t. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. So we gathered the latest post-earnings forecasts to see what estimates suggest is in store for next year.

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Following the recent earnings report, the consensus from eleven analysts covering Mitsubishi Motors is for revenues of JP¥2.73t in 2026. This implies a measurable 2.2% decline in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to soar 96% to JP¥59.93. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of JP¥2.78t and earnings per share (EPS) of JP¥67.93 in 2026. So there's definitely been a decline in sentiment after the latest results, noting the real cut to new EPS forecasts.

View our latest analysis for Mitsubishi Motors

The consensus price target held steady at JP¥427, with the analysts seemingly voting that their lower forecast earnings are not expected to lead to a lower stock price in the foreseeable future. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. There are some variant perceptions on Mitsubishi Motors, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at JP¥550 and the most bearish at JP¥330 per share. As you can see, analysts are not all in agreement on the stock's future, but the range of estimates is still reasonably narrow, which could suggest that the outcome is not totally unpredictable.

Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. We would highlight that revenue is expected to reverse, with a forecast 2.2% annualised decline to the end of 2026. That is a notable change from historical growth of 11% over the last five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in the same industry are forecast to see their revenue grow 2.6% annually for the foreseeable future. It's pretty clear that Mitsubishi Motors' revenues are expected to perform substantially worse than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts downgraded their earnings per share estimates, showing that there has been a clear decline in sentiment following these results. Fortunately, the analysts also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Although our data does suggest that Mitsubishi Motors' revenue is expected to perform worse than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. We have forecasts for Mitsubishi Motors going out to 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Before you take the next step you should know about the 2 warning signs for Mitsubishi Motors that we have uncovered.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.