Toyota Motor Corporation Beat Analyst Estimates: See What The Consensus Is Forecasting For This Year

Toyota Motor Corporation (TSE:7203) shareholders are probably feeling a little disappointed, since its shares fell 2.2% to JP¥2,720 in the week after its latest annual results. The result was positive overall - although revenues of JP¥48t were in line with what the analysts predicted, Toyota Motor surprised by delivering a statutory profit of JP¥360 per share, modestly greater than expected. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on Toyota Motor after the latest results.

We've discovered 3 warning signs about Toyota Motor. View them for free.

Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus from Toyota Motor's 20 analysts is for revenues of JP¥49t in 2026. This would reflect a satisfactory 2.4% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are forecast to tumble 21% to JP¥288 in the same period. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of JP¥49t and earnings per share (EPS) of JP¥307 in 2026. So it looks like there's been a small decline in overall sentiment after the recent results - there's been no major change to revenue estimates, but the analysts did make a small dip in their earnings per share forecasts.

Check out our latest analysis for Toyota Motor

It might be a surprise to learn that the consensus price target was broadly unchanged at JP¥3,088, with the analysts clearly implying that the forecast decline in earnings is not expected to have much of an impact on valuation. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Toyota Motor at JP¥3,700 per share, while the most bearish prices it at JP¥2,500. There are definitely some different views on the stock, but the range of estimates is not wide enough as to imply that the situation is unforecastable, in our view.

Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. We would highlight that Toyota Motor's revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 2.4% annualised growth rate until the end of 2026 being well below the historical 13% p.a. growth over the last five years. Compare this to the 10 other companies in this industry with analyst coverage, which are forecast to grow their revenue at 2.6% per year. Factoring in the forecast slowdown in growth, it looks like Toyota Motor is forecast to grow at about the same rate as the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for Toyota Motor. They also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, with the company predicted to grow at about the same rate as the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. We have estimates - from multiple Toyota Motor analysts - going out to 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here.

However, before you get too enthused, we've discovered 3 warning signs for Toyota Motor (2 can't be ignored!) that you should be aware of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.