Nissan Motor Co., Ltd. Just Missed Earnings With A Surprise Loss - Here Are Analysts Latest Forecasts

Shareholders might have noticed that Nissan Motor Co., Ltd. (TSE:7201) filed its third-quarter result this time last week. The early response was not positive, with shares down 4.2% to JP¥424 in the past week. Things were not great overall, with a surprise (statutory) loss of JP¥3.82 per share on revenues of JP¥3.2t, even though the analysts had been expecting a profit. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.

Check out our latest analysis for Nissan Motor

Following last week's earnings report, Nissan Motor's 14 analysts are forecasting 2026 revenues to be JP¥13t, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to leap 31% to JP¥37.66. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of JP¥13t and earnings per share (EPS) of JP¥40.09 in 2026. The analysts seem to have become a little more negative on the business after the latest results, given the small dip in their earnings per share numbers for next year.

It might be a surprise to learn that the consensus price target was broadly unchanged at JP¥394, with the analysts clearly implying that the forecast decline in earnings is not expected to have much of an impact on valuation. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. The most optimistic Nissan Motor analyst has a price target of JP¥638 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at JP¥250. Note the wide gap in analyst price targets? This implies to us that there is a fairly broad range of possible scenarios for the underlying business.

Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. These estimates imply that revenue is expected to slow, with a forecast annualised decline of 0.6% by the end of 2026. This indicates a significant reduction from annual growth of 9.2% over the last five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in the same industry are forecast to see their revenue grow 3.2% annually for the foreseeable future. So although its revenues are forecast to shrink, this cloud does not come with a silver lining - Nissan Motor is expected to lag the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for Nissan Motor. Fortunately, the analysts also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Although our data does suggest that Nissan Motor's revenue is expected to perform worse than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Nissan Motor. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. We have forecasts for Nissan Motor going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

You still need to take note of risks, for example - Nissan Motor has 3 warning signs (and 2 which shouldn't be ignored) we think you should know about.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.