Nissan Motor Co., Ltd. Earnings Missed Analyst Estimates: Here's What Analysts Are Forecasting Now

Nissan Motor Co., Ltd. (TSE:7201) missed earnings with its latest half-year results, disappointing overly-optimistic forecasters. Results showed a clear earnings miss, with JP¥6.0t revenue coming in 3.8% lower than what the analystsexpected. Statutory earnings per share (EPS) of JP¥5.24 missed the mark badly, arriving some 73% below what was expected. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.

See our latest analysis for Nissan Motor

Taking into account the latest results, Nissan Motor's 15 analysts currently expect revenues in 2025 to be JP¥13t, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are forecast to dive 47% to JP¥21.76 in the same period. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of JP¥13t and earnings per share (EPS) of JP¥63.90 in 2025. The analysts seem to have become more bearish following the latest results. While there were no changes to revenue forecasts, there was a large cut to EPS estimates.

The consensus price target held steady at JP¥473, with the analysts seemingly voting that their lower forecast earnings are not expected to lead to a lower stock price in the foreseeable future. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. The most optimistic Nissan Motor analyst has a price target of JP¥1,010 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at JP¥250. We would probably assign less value to the analyst forecasts in this situation, because such a wide range of estimates could imply that the future of this business is difficult to value accurately. With this in mind, we wouldn't rely too heavily the consensus price target, as it is just an average and analysts clearly have some deeply divergent views on the business.

Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. We would highlight that Nissan Motor's revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 2.2% annualised growth rate until the end of 2025 being well below the historical 7.3% p.a. growth over the last five years. Compare this against other companies (with analyst forecasts) in the industry, which are in aggregate expected to see revenue growth of 2.8% annually. Factoring in the forecast slowdown in growth, it seems obvious that Nissan Motor is also expected to grow slower than other industry participants.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts downgraded their earnings per share estimates, showing that there has been a clear decline in sentiment following these results. On the plus side, there were no major changes to revenue estimates; although forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at JP¥473, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. We have forecasts for Nissan Motor going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

You still need to take note of risks, for example - Nissan Motor has 3 warning signs (and 1 which can't be ignored) we think you should know about.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.