Analyst Estimates: Here's What Brokers Think Of Niterra Co., Ltd. (TSE:5334) After Its First-Quarter Report

Last week, you might have seen that Niterra Co., Ltd. (TSE:5334) released its first-quarter result to the market. The early response was not positive, with shares down 5.4% to JP¥4,911 in the past week. The result was positive overall - although revenues of JP¥170b were in line with what the analysts predicted, Niterra surprised by delivering a statutory profit of JP¥121 per share, modestly greater than expected. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.

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Following the latest results, Niterra's eight analysts are now forecasting revenues of JP¥694.3b in 2026. This would be a modest 5.6% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to increase 6.6% to JP¥477. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of JP¥691.5b and earnings per share (EPS) of JP¥478 in 2026. The consensus analysts don't seem to have seen anything in these results that would have changed their view on the business, given there's been no major change to their estimates.

View our latest analysis for Niterra

The analysts reconfirmed their price target of JP¥5,212, showing that the business is executing well and in line with expectations. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. There are some variant perceptions on Niterra, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at JP¥5,800 and the most bearish at JP¥4,425 per share. This is a very narrow spread of estimates, implying either that Niterra is an easy company to value, or - more likely - the analysts are relying heavily on some key assumptions.

These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the Niterra's past performance and to peers in the same industry. We would highlight that Niterra's revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 7.5% annualised growth rate until the end of 2026 being well below the historical 10% p.a. growth over the last five years. By way of comparison, the other companies in this industry with analyst coverage are forecast to grow their revenue at 2.6% annually. Even after the forecast slowdown in growth, it seems obvious that Niterra is also expected to grow faster than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that there's been no major change in sentiment, with the analysts reconfirming that the business is performing in line with their previous earnings per share estimates. Fortunately, they also reconfirmed their revenue numbers, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Additionally, our data suggests that revenue is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Niterra going out to 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here..

That said, it's still necessary to consider the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 1 warning sign with Niterra , and understanding it should be part of your investment process.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.