Evaluating Juventus Shares After 14.5% Gain and New Broadcasting Rights Negotiations

If you’ve ever considered buying, selling, or simply holding Juventus Football Club stock, you’re not alone. Plenty of keen investors find themselves wrestling with that very decision. Over the past year, Juventus shares have managed an impressive 14.5% gain, even after weathering a dip of 1.8% in the last week and nudging just slightly lower this year to date. Still, the five-year perspective tells a more sobering story, with shares down 52.4% from previous highs, reflecting some of the persistent uncertainty and shifting fortunes in the club’s business and sporting landscape.

Much of this volatility is tied to broader developments in the European football market. With continued debate around high-profile league reforms and potential changes in club ownership structures, investors are weighing both new risks and possible growth opportunities. The subdued recent returns, such as the 0.1% decline in the past month, aren’t necessarily the whole story. The longer-term resilience and renewed fan interest post-pandemic might be influencing sentiment here too.

But what about the core question: is Juventus attractively valued? If you look at the current value score, the club isn’t checking any boxes for being undervalued. Its score sits at a flat 0 out of 6. That might raise a few eyebrows, but it’s not the full picture. Up next, I’ll walk you through the main valuation approaches investors use with sports clubs like Juventus, and at the end of the article, we’ll explore one method that could give you the clearest insight yet.

Juventus Football Club scores just 0/6 on our valuation checks. See what other red flags we found in the full valuation breakdown.

Approach 1: Juventus Football Club Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis

The Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model calculates what Juventus Football Club stock could be worth today by projecting future cash flows and discounting them back to present value. This approach relies on forecasting the Free Cash Flow (FCF) the company generates, as well as estimating how it might grow over time.

Currently, Juventus is producing a negative Free Cash Flow of €-90.8 million, meaning more money is flowing out of the business than in. Looking ahead, analysts expect gradual recovery, with FCF projected to turn positive by 2027 at €4 million and then growing steadily. By 2030, the estimate rises to about €15.3 million and reaches roughly €33.1 million in 2035, according to Simply Wall St’s long-range forecasts. All cash flow estimates and projections are in euros.

Based on these assumptions, the DCF model calculates a fair value of just €0.38 per share for Juventus. This represents a 675.1% discount from the current share price, suggesting the club’s stock is significantly overvalued using this methodology.

Result: OVERVALUED

Head to the Valuation section of our Company Report for more details on how we arrive at this Fair Value for Juventus Football Club.

Our Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) analysis suggests Juventus Football Club may be overvalued by 675.1%. Find undervalued stocks or create your own screener to find better value opportunities.

Approach 2: Juventus Football Club Price vs Sales

For companies where profitability may fluctuate but revenue remains steady, the Price-to-Sales (P/S) ratio often provides a clear, apples-to-apples comparison. This is particularly true in industries like football, where income can be highly variable from year to year due to changing tournament results and transfer activity. The P/S ratio helps investors assess how much they are paying for each euro of Juventus Football Club’s annual sales, regardless of factors like one-off gains or losses.

Growth potential and risk also play big roles in determining what is a “fair” P/S multiple. A club expecting strong revenue expansion or improvements in commercial deals might warrant a higher ratio. Conversely, higher risk or stagnation typically leads to a lower justified multiple. Juventus’s current P/S ratio stands at 2.32x, almost identical to the Entertainment industry average of 2.35x, but well above the average peer level of 0.51x. This hints at a premium valuation compared to similar clubs.

Simply Wall St’s proprietary “Fair Ratio” goes a step further than basic peer or industry comparisons. This benchmark reflects not only growth forecasts and the wider football industry, but also key factors such as Juventus’s profit margins, business risks, and scale. By weighing these drivers, the Fair Ratio aims to pin down a valuation that truly fits Juventus’s unique profile. At 1.93x, Juventus’s Fair Ratio sits only slightly below the actual P/S multiple. This indicates that, after accounting for club-specific factors, the current valuation is just about in line with expectations.

Result: ABOUT RIGHT

PS ratios tell one story, but what if the real opportunity lies elsewhere? Discover companies where insiders are betting big on explosive growth.

Upgrade Your Decision Making: Choose your Juventus Football Club Narrative

Earlier we mentioned that there is an even better way to understand valuation, so let's introduce you to Narratives. A Narrative is a simple, powerful way to bring your perspective to life by attaching a story to the numbers. In other words, it connects how you see Juventus’s future to specific forecasts for revenue, earnings, and margins, and ultimately to your own fair value estimate.

Narratives make it easy to turn your view of the club into a full investment case, linking Juventus's story to meaningful forecasts and an actionable fair value. Available right now on Simply Wall St’s Community page and used by millions of investors, Narratives give you a structured, visual tool to see how your expectations compare to others’ in real time.

This means you can instantly see if your fair value signals “buy” or “sell” compared to today’s price, with your Narrative updating automatically as new news or results come in. For Juventus Football Club, some Narratives see the fair value as low as €0.33 per share if the challenges persist, while others go as high as €0.95 per share given a strong recovery and successful reforms.

Do you think there's more to the story for Juventus Football Club? Create your own Narrative to let the Community know!

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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