Poste Italiane S.p.A. Just Recorded A 6.4% EPS Beat: Here's What Analysts Are Forecasting Next

A week ago, Poste Italiane S.p.A. (BIT:PST) came out with a strong set of interim numbers that could potentially lead to a re-rate of the stock. The company beat expectations with revenues of €6.3b arriving 3.6% ahead of forecasts. Statutory earnings per share (EPS) were €0.41, 6.4% ahead of estimates. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.

View our latest analysis for Poste Italiane

Following the recent earnings report, the consensus from 13 analysts covering Poste Italiane is for revenues of €12.3b in 2024. This implies a noticeable 5.0% decline in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to rise 9.8% to €1.53. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of €12.2b and earnings per share (EPS) of €1.49 in 2024. The analysts seems to have become more bullish on the business, judging by their new earnings per share estimates.

There's been no major changes to the consensus price target of €13.91, suggesting that the improved earnings per share outlook is not enough to have a long-term positive impact on the stock's valuation. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. There are some variant perceptions on Poste Italiane, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at €15.50 and the most bearish at €11.90 per share. Even so, with a relatively close grouping of estimates, it looks like the analysts are quite confident in their valuations, suggesting Poste Italiane is an easy business to forecast or the the analysts are all using similar assumptions.

One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. We would also point out that the forecast 9.8% annualised revenue decline to the end of 2024 is better than the historical trend, which saw revenues shrink 22% annually over the past five years Compare this against analyst estimates for companies in the broader industry, which suggest that revenues (in aggregate) are expected to grow 6.4% annually. So it's pretty clear that, while it does have declining revenues, the analysts also expect Poste Italiane to suffer worse than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The biggest takeaway for us is the consensus earnings per share upgrade, which suggests a clear improvement in sentiment around Poste Italiane's earnings potential next year. Fortunately, the analysts also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Although our data does suggest that Poste Italiane's revenue is expected to perform worse than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Poste Italiane going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here..

Don't forget that there may still be risks. For instance, we've identified 2 warning signs for Poste Italiane (1 is potentially serious) you should be aware of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com