Earnings Beat: Tenaris S.A. Just Beat Analyst Forecasts, And Analysts Have Been Updating Their Models

Shareholders might have noticed that Tenaris S.A. (BIT:TEN) filed its interim result this time last week. The early response was not positive, with shares down 7.2% to €15.03 in the past week. Revenues were US$6.0b, approximately in line with expectations, although statutory earnings per share (EPS) performed substantially better. EPS of US$0.50 were also better than expected, beating analyst predictions by 14%. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.

AI is about to change healthcare. These 20 stocks are working on everything from early diagnostics to drug discovery. The best part - they are all under $10bn in marketcap - there is still time to get in early.

Following last week's earnings report, Tenaris' 18 analysts are forecasting 2025 revenues to be US$12.0b, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are forecast to sink 11% to US$1.69 in the same period. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$11.9b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$1.65 in 2025. The analysts seems to have become more bullish on the business, judging by their new earnings per share estimates.

See our latest analysis for Tenaris

The consensus price target was unchanged at €17.64, implying that the improved earnings outlook is not expected to have a long term impact on value creation for shareholders. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Tenaris at €21.03 per share, while the most bearish prices it at €13.34. As you can see, analysts are not all in agreement on the stock's future, but the range of estimates is still reasonably narrow, which could suggest that the outcome is not totally unpredictable.

Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that Tenaris' revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2025 expected to display 3.3% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 20% over the past five years. Compare this against other companies (with analyst forecasts) in the industry, which are in aggregate expected to see revenue growth of 4.7% annually. Factoring in the forecast slowdown in growth, it seems obvious that Tenaris is also expected to grow slower than other industry participants.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing here is that the analysts upgraded their earnings per share estimates, suggesting that there has been a clear increase in optimism towards Tenaris following these results. On the plus side, there were no major changes to revenue estimates; although forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at €17.64, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Tenaris going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here..

It is also worth noting that we have found 2 warning signs for Tenaris (1 makes us a bit uncomfortable!) that you need to take into consideration.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.