Saipem SpA (BIT:SPM) Full-Year Results: Here's What Analysts Are Forecasting For This Year

There's been a major selloff in Saipem SpA (BIT:SPM) shares in the week since it released its yearly report, with the stock down 24% to €1.62. Saipem beat revenue expectations by 2.2%, at €15b. Statutory earnings per share (EPS) came in at €0.15, some 3.0% short of analyst estimates. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. With this in mind, we've gathered the latest statutory forecasts to see what the analysts are expecting for next year.

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After the latest results, the 14 analysts covering Saipem are now predicting revenues of €15.2b in 2025. If met, this would reflect a reasonable 4.8% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to shoot up 39% to €0.22. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of €15.2b and earnings per share (EPS) of €0.22 in 2025. So it's pretty clear that, although the analysts have updated their estimates, there's been no major change in expectations for the business following the latest results.

View our latest analysis for Saipem

It will come as no surprise then, to learn that the consensus price target is largely unchanged at €3.14. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Saipem at €3.70 per share, while the most bearish prices it at €2.20. There are definitely some different views on the stock, but the range of estimates is not wide enough as to imply that the situation is unforecastable, in our view.

Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that Saipem's revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2025 expected to display 4.8% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 14% over the past five years. By way of comparison, the other companies in this industry with analyst coverage are forecast to grow their revenue at 2.5% annually. Even after the forecast slowdown in growth, it seems obvious that Saipem is also expected to grow faster than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most obvious conclusion is that there's been no major change in the business' prospects in recent times, with the analysts holding their earnings forecasts steady, in line with previous estimates. Happily, there were no major changes to revenue forecasts, with the business still expected to grow faster than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at €3.14, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Saipem. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. We have forecasts for Saipem going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Even so, be aware that Saipem is showing 1 warning sign in our investment analysis , you should know about...

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.