Revenue Beat: Iveco Group N.V. Exceeded Revenue Forecasts By 31% And Analysts Are Updating Their Estimates

As you might know, Iveco Group N.V. (BIT:IVG) just kicked off its latest half-yearly results with some very strong numbers. Statutory earnings beat expectations, with revenues of €7.3b coming in a massive 31% ahead of forecasts, while earnings per share (eps) of €0.56 beat expectations by 9.3%. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.

See our latest analysis for Iveco Group

Following the recent earnings report, the consensus from ten analysts covering Iveco Group is for revenues of €15.2b in 2024. This implies a measurable 5.0% decline in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to bounce 68% to €1.41. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of €15.3b and earnings per share (EPS) of €1.28 in 2024. Although the revenue estimates have not really changed, we can see there's been a decent improvement in earnings per share expectations, suggesting that the analysts have become more bullish after the latest result.

There's been no major changes to the consensus price target of €14.76, suggesting that the improved earnings per share outlook is not enough to have a long-term positive impact on the stock's valuation. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Iveco Group at €18.00 per share, while the most bearish prices it at €10.50. These price targets show that analysts do have some differing views on the business, but the estimates do not vary enough to suggest to us that some are betting on wild success or utter failure.

These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the Iveco Group's past performance and to peers in the same industry. We would highlight that revenue is expected to reverse, with a forecast 9.7% annualised decline to the end of 2024. That is a notable change from historical growth of 11% over the last three years. Compare this with our data, which suggests that other companies in the same industry are, in aggregate, expected to see their revenue grow 5.2% per year. So although its revenues are forecast to shrink, this cloud does not come with a silver lining - Iveco Group is expected to lag the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing here is that the analysts upgraded their earnings per share estimates, suggesting that there has been a clear increase in optimism towards Iveco Group following these results. Fortunately, the analysts also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Although our data does suggest that Iveco Group's revenue is expected to perform worse than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have forecasts for Iveco Group going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

That said, it's still necessary to consider the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 4 warning signs with Iveco Group , and understanding these should be part of your investment process.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com