Weak Statutory Earnings May Not Tell The Whole Story For ILPRA (BIT:ILP)

Investors were disappointed by ILPRA S.p.A.'s (BIT:ILP ) latest earnings release. We did some analysis, and found that there are some reasons to be cautious about the headline numbers.

Check out our latest analysis for ILPRA

Zooming In On ILPRA's Earnings

As finance nerds would already know, the accrual ratio from cashflow is a key measure for assessing how well a company's free cash flow (FCF) matches its profit. The accrual ratio subtracts the FCF from the profit for a given period, and divides the result by the average operating assets of the company over that time. This ratio tells us how much of a company's profit is not backed by free cashflow.

That means a negative accrual ratio is a good thing, because it shows that the company is bringing in more free cash flow than its profit would suggest. While it's not a problem to have a positive accrual ratio, indicating a certain level of non-cash profits, a high accrual ratio is arguably a bad thing, because it indicates paper profits are not matched by cash flow. Notably, there is some academic evidence that suggests that a high accrual ratio is a bad sign for near-term profits, generally speaking.

Over the twelve months to December 2023, ILPRA recorded an accrual ratio of 0.51. As a general rule, that bodes poorly for future profitability. To wit, the company did not generate one whit of free cashflow in that time. Even though it reported a profit of €4.96m, a look at free cash flow indicates it actually burnt through €14m in the last year. It's worth noting that ILPRA generated positive FCF of €1.8m a year ago, so at least they've done it in the past.

That might leave you wondering what analysts are forecasting in terms of future profitability. Luckily, you can click here to see an interactive graph depicting future profitability, based on their estimates.

Our Take On ILPRA's Profit Performance

As we have made quite clear, we're a bit worried that ILPRA didn't back up the last year's profit with free cashflow. For this reason, we think that ILPRA's statutory profits may be a bad guide to its underlying earnings power, and might give investors an overly positive impression of the company. But on the bright side, its earnings per share have grown at an extremely impressive rate over the last three years. Of course, we've only just scratched the surface when it comes to analysing its earnings; one could also consider margins, forecast growth, and return on investment, among other factors. If you'd like to know more about ILPRA as a business, it's important to be aware of any risks it's facing. For example, we've found that ILPRA has 4 warning signs (2 are significant!) that deserve your attention before going any further with your analysis.

This note has only looked at a single factor that sheds light on the nature of ILPRA's profit. But there are plenty of other ways to inform your opinion of a company. For example, many people consider a high return on equity as an indication of favorable business economics, while others like to 'follow the money' and search out stocks that insiders are buying. So you may wish to see this free collection of companies boasting high return on equity, or this list of stocks that insiders are buying.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.